World Approaching Critical Threshold: Climate Catastrophe Looms by 2029
According to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the world is rapidly approaching a critical threshold in terms of global warming. The study suggests that by early 2029, the international temperature limit for global warming will be exceeded if the current rate of fossil fuel consumption continues. This unfortunate development, which was initially predicted to occur in 2032, brings the catastrophic consequences of climate change three years closer.
The internationally agreed temperature limit for global warming is an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. Once this threshold is breached, the risks of various catastrophes will increase significantly. For instance, the world stands to lose a substantial portion of its coral reefs, a key ice sheet could start melting irreversibly, water shortages and heatwaves will become more prevalent, and the number of deaths resulting from extreme weather events will skyrocket. These alarming projections were highlighted in a previous United Nations scientific report.
The acceleration of reaching this critical threshold can be attributed to the progress made in reducing a different type of air pollution called aerosols. Although aerosols have a cooling effect on the planet and mitigate the impact of burning fossil fuels, their decrease due to pollution control efforts has led to faster rises in temperatures.
The study calculates the remaining carbon budget, which refers to the amount of fossil fuels that can still be burned while maintaining a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The current carbon budget is set at 250 billion metric tons. Given that the world is currently consuming over 40 billion metric tons of fossil fuels annually, there are only about five years and a couple of months left before the budget is exhausted. However, it’s important to note that the actual temperature increase may occur slightly earlier or up to a decade or two later than the budget depletion.
The authors of the study emphasize that running out of the carbon budget for 1.5 degrees Celsius does not signify the only remaining timeline to combat global warming. They estimate that the carbon budget with a 50% chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius is 1220 billion metric tons, which provides approximately 30 years.
While some experts claim that breaching the 1.5-degree limit is an inflection point that dramatically increases the risk of catastrophic changes, others argue that it’s crucial to fight for every fraction of a degree to minimize the impact of climate change. World leaders are still optimistic about achieving the 1.5-degree limit, although it remains a challenging task from both technical and political perspectives.
In conclusion, the world is rapidly approaching a critical threshold for climate change, with the internationally agreed temperature limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius at risk of being surpassed by early 2029. This new study brings the projected date three years closer, highlighting the urgent need for global action to reduce fossil fuel consumption and mitigate the catastrophic consequences of climate change.
Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment.
