A recent study conducted by scientists from Virginia Commonwealth University has found that climate change could lead to an increase in mosquito populations due to the struggle of their predators to control their numbers. The study, titled Warming and Top-Down Control of Stage-Structured Prey: Linking Theory to Patterns in Natural Systems, was published in Ecology, a journal by the Ecological Society of America. It revealed that rising temperatures, often associated with climate change, can reduce the effectiveness of predator insects, such as dragonflies, in controlling mosquito populations.
The research focused on the interaction between dragonfly nymphs and mosquito larvae in riverine rock pools at Belle Isle along the James River in Richmond, Virginia. It discovered that warmer temperatures shortened the development time of mosquito larvae, which in turn reduced the window of opportunity for dragonflies to consume them. As a result, nearly twice as many mosquito larvae managed to reach adulthood in the study area compared to pools with lower temperatures. The presence of predators did not significantly affect the abundance of mosquito larvae in warmer temperature pools.
Although the native rock pool mosquito studied is not a significant disease carrier, the findings could apply to other mosquito species that act as vectors for diseases such as West Nile or Zika virus. Lead researcher Andrew T Davidson, PhD, stated that larger populations of disease-carrying mosquitoes could emerge as a consequence of the study’s findings. He emphasized the importance of understanding the implications of climate change on mosquito populations, especially those linked to the transmission of diseases.
The study highlights the crucial role of predators in stabilizing ecosystems and food webs. It built upon previous research by Davidson and his colleagues, combining thermal physiology concepts with short-term lab experiments to develop predictive models. Fieldwork was then conducted to verify these models in a natural environment.
The study was part of a larger National Science Foundation grant that involved scientists from various universities, including VCU, the University of Richmond, Radford University, Western Carolina University, and Eastern Carolina University. The collaborative effort received nearly USD 1 million in funding, with VCU being allocated approximately USD 400,000.
As the global climate crisis continues, it becomes increasingly essential to address its impact on various ecosystems and wildlife populations. Understanding the consequences of climate change on mosquito populations and their predators can help inform strategies to mitigate the potential risks associated with increased mosquito abundance.
