Climate Change Poses Massive Property Value Risks Due to Wildfires and Tree Mortality
Earth’s changing climate is wreaking havoc on landscapes worldwide, leading to floods, rising sea levels, extreme weather, droughts, and wildfires. A new study conducted by scholars from the University of Utah highlights the alarming risks climate change poses to property values, particularly in areas prone to wildfires and tree mortality. Led by biology professor William Anderegg, the research team aimed to quantify the value of property exposed to these climate hazards, including increased wildfire activity and beetle infestations.
As a society, we have various tools to mitigate risks, such as insurance policies, seat belts, and airbags. However, effectively minimizing risks relies on understanding them and how they might change, which is where cutting-edge science and tools become crucial. Climate change is a game changer, as it intensifies threats, but the exact locations, timing, and magnitude of these risks remain uncertain.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, focuses on identifying climate-related risks to property values. The team, including geographer Tim Collins and sociologist Sara Grineski from the College of Social and Behavioral Sciences, examined how climate-sensitive disturbances impact property values. They found that as climate change effects proliferate in forests, more U.S. properties will be exposed to higher risks. Although the study did not specify locations at risk, it is evident that the Southwest and California face significant challenges, given the soaring property values near publicly owned woodlands and the declining health of forests.
The study explored three key factors affecting property values: wildfires, tree mortality caused by climate stresses like drought, and tree mortality due to insect infestation. By projecting future scenarios for two 30-year windows (mid-21st century and end of the century), the researchers identified the potential risks. They also discovered that effective carbon emission-reduction strategies could significantly reduce exposure to these risks.
Currently, about $4 billion worth of property is exposed to wildfires in the contiguous United States each year for privately owned lots measuring 1 acre or more. However, under a scenario where no action is taken to reduce emissions, this figure is projected to increase to $22 billion and $45 billion by 2049 and 2099, respectively. Yet, if aggressive climate action is implemented, the study suggests that the value of exposed property would peak at around $11 billion.
Properties situated near forests are typically desirable due to the associated amenities. However, if trees die or burn, these properties lose their appeal and subsequently experience a decline in market value. Regions identified as wildland-urban interface, such as California, are currently experiencing fast-paced residential development, emphasizing the value that forest landscapes hold for communities.
The study’s findings are conservative because they do not consider the anticipated growth in at-risk landscapes. As temperatures rise in the hot arid West, more people are expected to be increasingly drawn to mountainous environments. Even without accounting for this expanding development, the research demonstrates the significance of climate change and increased forest disturbance in terms of putting current property values at risk.
The project received funding from the David and Lucille Packard Foundation and the National Science Foundation and involved collaboration with researchers from Boston University and Swansea University in Wales.
In conclusion, this study underscores the urgent need for cutting-edge science and tools to assess the risks posed by climate change to property values. By understanding these risks and implementing effective mitigation strategies, it is possible to minimize the potential impact and protect vulnerable communities and their valuable properties.
