Rapid Support Forces Make Gains in Sudan’s War, but Stalemate Persists
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have achieved a series of recent victories, strengthening their negotiating position in Sudan’s ongoing war against the army. However, while these victories may provide advantages to the paramilitary group, they are unlikely to change the overall stalemate in a conflict that neither side seems poised to win, according to Sudanese analysts.
The RSF recently announced the capture of Zalingi in the Darfur region, adding to their previous victory in Nyala, Sudan’s second-largest city. In both cases, the RSF defeated and captured local army garrisons. The paramilitary group is also believed to be close to defeating the army in El Fasher in Darfur and El Obeid in the neighboring Kordofan region.
While the RSF’s advances are significant, the key question is how long they can sustain them and whether they can overcome the general resentment felt towards them by most Sudanese, said military and security analyst Omar Arbab. He further noted that their objective is to expand their control and improve their position in Jeddah, the venue for ceasefire negotiations sponsored by Saudi Arabia and the US.
The RSF’s forerunner, a notorious militia called the Janjaweed, has been accused of war crimes in Darfur during the civil war in the 2000s. The International Criminal Court is currently investigating new allegations of crimes committed by the RSF and allied militias, including unlawful detention, looting, eviction of civilians, sexual assault, and violence against the ethnic African Masalit tribe.
While the RSF enjoys support from powerful Arab tribes in Darfur, opposition from heavily armed African tribes in the region poses a significant challenge to the paramilitary’s ambition of seizing control of the entire Darfur area. Moreover, an RSF-controlled Darfur could attract foreign rebel groups, undermining security and stability.
In the capital city Khartoum, neither side has been able to gain an advantage over the other. RSF fighters control most districts, but the army utilizes heavy artillery and air strikes to target the paramilitary’s positions. The army’s strategy, however, has failed to alter the situation in urban warfare.
The conflict in Sudan originated from a dispute between army chief Gen Abdel Fattah Al Burhan and RSF commander Gen Mohamed Dagalo over the implementation of a democratic transition plan. Their disagreement escalated into an armed struggle for military and political supremacy, resulting in displacement, casualties, and widespread destruction of infrastructure.
Mediation by Saudi Arabia and the US has led to several failed ceasefire agreements, but negotiations resumed last week in Jeddah. The analysts predict that the talks will result in a temporary truce allowing humanitarian aid to reach the affected Sudanese population. The subsequent phase will focus on resolving the differences between the two sides, particularly concerning the assimilation of the RSF into the armed forces, a topic met with resistance by Gen Dagalo.
In conclusion, while the RSF’s recent gains provide them with greater leverage in negotiations, the overall balance of power remains inconclusive. The conflict has had devastating consequences for Sudan, leaving behind a shattered infrastructure and uncertainty about the democratic transition process. Only time will reveal if a lasting resolution can be achieved through dialogue and compromise between the warring factions.
