Title: Middle East Conflict Raises Concerns About Global Stability
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Gaza is causing significant anxieties globally as fears of a potential regional fallout and threats to international stability loom large. The outcome of this conflict has the potential to represent a victory for revisionist powers over the established American-dominated order in the region. Progressive Middle Eastern countries also face the possibility of a severely destabilized regional and global order if worst-case scenarios unfold.
The country most directly threatened by the Gaza-Israel war is Egypt. Since the signing of the Camp David peace treaty with Israel in 1979, Egypt has been determined not to be drawn back into a leadership role in Gaza. It has made it clear that it will not allow the problems facing the Palestinians in Gaza to spill over into Egyptian territory. Egypt will not open its borders to a flood of Palestinian refugees from Gaza, which would aid both Israel and Hamas. Other Arab countries are also unwilling to assist Israel and Hamas in resolving the crisis they have created for themselves, particularly Israel in Gaza.
Jordan, which has already taken in a significant number of Palestinian refugees in the past, will not permit more Palestinians displaced from the West Bank to enter its territory. Jordanian authorities view this as a repeating scenario that would burden their country further. Israel’s annexation-minded leaders have long advocated for the displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza to Jordan or other neighboring countries, in an attempt to rid Israel of non-Jewish indigenous inhabitants. However, such calculations overlook the significant complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the impossibility of resolving it by expelling Palestinians.
Emotions and narratives have played a central role in fueling the conflict, enabling Hamas to carry out attacks on Israelis and prompting Israel to respond brutally against the innocent Palestinian population of Gaza. Hamas successfully provoked an emotional overreaction from Israel, with indications that Israel is preparing for a large-scale invasion of Gaza. However, such an invasion presents significant challenges, as urban combat heavily favors guerrilla groups like Hamas over regular militaries.
This escalating conflict poses a grave risk to the enduring but battered Pax Americana in the Middle East, with potential repercussions extending to the strategically crucial Gulf region. Unrest is already occurring in the West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem, and any escalation in the holy places, particularly the Al Aqsa Mosque compound, could prompt Hezbollah and other Iranian clients to intervene. While Iran would prefer to restrain its regional proxies from becoming further entangled in the conflict, smaller groups in Lebanon and pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria remain potential threats to Israel.
The United States, aware of the testing ground it faces, has deployed extensive naval and air power in the region. The Biden administration is determined to prevent a regional disaster that would damage American strategic interests and upset the balance of power. Fortunately, Tehran seems inclined to discourage its proxies from going too far, especially in the case of Hezbollah. Iran recognizes that Gaza holds marginal strategic, cultural, and religious importance, and is unlikely to waste its ultimate deterrent against Israel on this conflict.
As the conflict progresses, it is crucial to remember that there are multiple perspectives and stakeholders involved. A delicate balance needs to be maintained to avoid a wider conflict that could have far-reaching consequences. The international community must monitor the situation closely, urging restraint and diplomatic solutions to prevent further destabilization in the Middle East.
In conclusion, the Middle East conflict between Israel and Gaza poses a significant threat to global stability. The potential for regional fallout and damage to the established order and strategic interests necessitate a careful and balanced approach to prevent further escalation. Diplomatic efforts must be intensified to resolve the underlying issues and bring about lasting peace in the region.
