Israel-Gaza Conflict: Future Uncertain as Israel Targets Hamas
The ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict has left many questioning what lies ahead for the region. The relationship between Israel and Hamas, marked by cycles of violence followed by periods of relative calm, is unlikely to survive the current escalation, according to experts. The recent acts of violence by Hamas, including the killing of Israeli families and kidnapping of children, have shattered the status quo. The aftermath of this conflict is still uncertain, and various possibilities for the future Israel-Gaza relationship are being considered.
The outcome may depend on the state of Hamas and Gaza once the fighting comes to an end. Israel’s airstrikes have already caused significant damage, killing over 2,450 people and destroying public infrastructure. If Hamas is severely weakened or eliminated, the shape of the next Israel-Gaza relationship would drastically change. Several scenarios that were previously deemed unlikely could now be on the table, such as Israel reoccupying Gaza temporarily, the return of the Palestinian Authority to the enclave, the deployment of international peacekeepers, or a demilitarized Hamas retaining some form of government authority.
While Israeli officials have not openly discussed these possibilities, their stated objective is to eliminate Hamas once and for all. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to crush and destroy the group. The Israeli public widely supports this goal for now, as seen by the banners calling for the destruction of Gaza in Tel Aviv. However, past conflicts have shown that public sentiment can change, especially if a prolonged ground war results in high civilian casualties.
The Israeli military, while more cautious in its statements, is preparing for a major operation to defeat Hamas and eliminate its leadership. This expanded objective goes beyond degrading Hamas’s military capability as in previous conflicts. Yet, complete destruction of Hamas may prove difficult, as the organization has leaders in exile and supporters in the West Bank and beyond. Hamas, like an ideology, may be challenging to entirely eradicate.
In the event of a deposed Hamas, a governing body would need to fill the resulting power vacuum in Gaza. However, it is unlikely that Israel would be willing to reoccupy Gaza or govern the lives of its Palestinian population. Another possibility is the return of the Palestinian Authority, which previously governed the enclave between 1994 and 2006. To avoid further delegitimizing the authority, careful management and international support would be crucial.
The recent warming of relations between Israel and some Arab states could provide an opportunity for a solution. Saudi Arabia, for example, had been discussing establishing ties with Israel, with potential involvement in facilitating the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza. The willingness of regional and international actors to help craft an endgame may depend on how the conflict concludes. The shocking brutality of Hamas’s attacks has garnered initial support, but as the Gaza campaign intensifies, public opinion may shift.
Furthermore, the future of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is uncertain. Many are critical of his handling of the conflict and his strategy that empowered Hamas. Similar to past prime ministers who faced significant backlash after surprise military conflicts, Netanyahu may face a reckoning once the ground operation concludes.
In summary, the future of the Israel-Gaza relationship remains uncertain. The outcome will depend on various factors, including the extent of the damage inflicted on Hamas and Gaza, the potential involvement of international and regional actors, and the actions taken by Israeli and Palestinian authorities. As the conflict evolves, it is essential to consider different perspectives and maintain a balanced view of the situation.
