Escalating Conflict in Mali Raises Concerns of Civil War as Jihadist Insurgency Threatens Timbuktu
TIMBUKTU/DAKAR (Reuters) – Mali is facing an intensifying conflict that has sparked fears of a civil war as jihadist insurgents target the historic city of Timbuktu. In recent months, Islamist militants have initiated a blockade by cutting off road access to Timbuktu and subsequently shutting down river and air routes. This offensive has once again pushed the city to the forefront of a jihadist insurgency.
The situation has worsened with a series of bombings, casting a shadow of fear and uncertainty over the residents of Timbuktu. Witness accounts describe rockets hitting a hospital, leading to the tragic loss of two children, as well as near misses close to a school where survivors of a previous attack had sought refuge. The terrifying shelling has left a lasting impact on the people, instilling a sense of psychosis and anxiety within them.
The United Nations began reducing its peacekeeping mission in Mali in July, and since then, militant groups affiliated with al-Qaeda have launched an offensive in central Mali. Furthermore, clashes have resumed between the Malian army and Tuareg rebels in the north, alongside continued attacks by insurgents allied with the Islamic State in the east. This escalating violence has caused Mali to descend into chaos, and the repercussions are being felt across the entire Sahel region of West Africa, which is already grappling with instability due to military coups in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
The current situation in Mali is drawing comparisons to the events of 2012 when jihadists took advantage of another Tuareg rebellion to capture Timbuktu and advance towards the capital, Bamako. In response, French and UN forces intervened to halt their progress. However, this time around, there will be no external intervention.
Mali’s military junta, which gained power through two coups in 2020 and 2021, has distanced itself from the support of UN and French forces, expelling the latter from the country. Furthermore, they have failed to address the security vacuum adequately, even with the assistance of the Russian Wagner Group, which has deployed 1,000 mercenaries to aid the junta. The Wagner Group is now even accused of launching attacks against civilians.
The armed conflict has taken a heavy toll on the people of Mali, with more than 650 deaths recorded in the two months following the UN’s pullback, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous two months, according to the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
Mali’s authorities have not provided specific comments regarding the situation. However, the army released a statement acknowledging the turbulent month of September while affirming their commitment to protect the nation and its people by continuing to fight their enemies.
In 2013, French forces successfully pushed back the Islamist insurgency. However, the militants regrouped and launched a renewed campaign that has resulted in the deaths of thousands and the displacement of millions in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The instability has led to a series of military coups and strained relations between regional and Western states. France recently announced its decision to withdraw troops from Niger, leaving domestic armies to grapple with the mounting challenges alone.
The conflict in Mali re-escalated in August when clashes erupted between the army and an ethnic Tuareg group known as the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA). The violence began around a U.N.-vacated base and quickly spread as CMA launched attacks on multiple Malian army bases, even if separated by hundreds of miles. The CMA had previously laid down their arms in 2015 under a U.N.-brokered agreement. However, they argue that the army encroached on their territory, prompting their return to conflict. The army, on the other hand, labels the CMA fighters as terrorists.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, has also conducted raids on military camps, attacked airports, fired on passenger boats, and initiated the blockade of Timbuktu.
One of the major challenges facing Mali is the lack of troops and mobility. Michael Shurkin, director of global programs at 14 North Strategies consultancy, emphasized that both JNIM and CMA enjoy freedom of movement across the entire region due to this deficiency.
Security experts have indicated that there is no evidence of coordination between these groups. However, they acknowledge the existence of certain ties, such as JNIM’s leader Iyad Ag-Ghali being a former Tuareg rebel. These connections enable communication between the groups, although they may not act in complete unison.
The situation in Timbuktu is particularly dire, with the city now under siege. The blockade has cut off essential supplies, leading to soaring prices for basic commodities. Traders report a 25% increase in sugar prices, while essentials like charcoal, potatoes, and onions have witnessed a 30% spike. To avoid falling rockets, residents are wary of venturing into markets, and a nightly curfew has turned the streets empty.
Local market trader Mohamed Massaya lamented the deteriorating conditions, stating that the situation has gone from bad to worse. Business has come to a standstill, and people are forced to rely on their dwindling stocks.
Following a JNIM attack on September 7 targeting the Timbuktu, a boat ferrying soldiers and residents from Gao, hundreds of survivors sought refuge in Timbuktu. Subsequently, ferry services were halted. Salaha Maiga, a member of Mali’s National Transitional Council, confirmed that 111 people lost their lives in the attack, revising the initial figure of 64 provided by authorities. The survivors now face tremendous psychological and physical challenges.
Aicha Sababou, who was on the boat, described the horrors they witnessed. Witnessing the deaths of dozens of people and the collective burials have left deep scars. Despite the wounds they need to heal, they are relieved to be reunited with their families.
As the conflict in Mali continues to intensify, the international community grapples with the absence of a coordinated response. The repercussions are not limited to Mali alone, with neighboring countries also experiencing the ripple effects of the instability. It remains to be seen how the situation will unfold and whether a resolution can be achieved to prevent the descent into civil war.
