China’s Fertility Rate Hits All-Time Low, Sparking Population Concerns
China is facing a significant demographic challenge as its fertility rate drops to its lowest level in history. Alongside other Southeast Asian countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore, China now boasts the lowest fertility rate worldwide. Startling statistics reveal that Hong Kong’s childless female population has more than doubled in the past five years, reaching 43.2% in 2022. Furthermore, the average number of children per woman plummeted to a record-low of 0.9 in the same year, down from 1.3 in 2017.
If China maintains this level of fertility, its population is projected to decrease to approximately 1.0 to 1.1 billion by 2050. This staggering drop equates to losing the entire population of the United States within the next three decades. Additionally, the workforce, specifically the working-age population, is anticipated to decrease by almost 50% by 2050.
In a bid to combat this population collapse, China is implementing measures to provide free fertility treatments. The government hopes these initiatives will help reverse the declining birth rate. However, the main challenge lies in the significant disparity between the number of girls aged 0-4 and the number of women aged 35-39.
China’s fertility rate of 1.09 results in only 0.54 fertile daughters being produced by the average woman. As a result, the population of fertile women is shrinking at a much faster rate than the overall population. Experts predict that the number of women capable of bearing children will decrease by half between 2045 and 2055.
While some may view this as solely China’s problem, the global economy is on the brink of a ten trillion-dollar hit due to this decline. Furthermore, nearly 70% of the world’s population resides in countries with birth rates below replacement levels. Even populous nations like India and Bangladesh are grappling with fertility rates below replacement.
When a country drops below replacement level, it signifies that its population will start shrinking within approximately 40 years. As of now, almost a quarter of the world’s population resides in countries with declining population trends.
India is also facing a similar situation, with its population potentially plummeting just 30 years after China’s. India has made significant progress in development indicators, such as a reduced infant mortality rate, increased secondary education enrollment, and improved mean years of schooling among adults. This progress has contributed to India’s declining fertility rate, which could be as low as 1.6-1.7 by 2024. However, a delayed census will provide more accurate data on the country’s population.
The United Nations population division predicts that India’s fertility rate will rebound slightly to 1.78 by 2050 before declining to 1.69 by 2100. It’s worth noting that Indian populations in Singapore and Malaysia are only slightly higher than Chinese communities in those countries. The average fertility rate for Indians in Singapore between 2000 and 2022 was 1.19, while Chinese had a rate of 1.09. Similarly, in Malaysia from 2016 to 2021, Chinese had a fertility rate of 1.1, compared to Indians at 1.23.
As we navigate these declining birth rates in both China and India, it is crucial to consider the potential impact on the global economy and society at large. Addressing these population challenges will require innovative solutions and international cooperation to ensure a sustainable future.
