Australia is currently experiencing an unseasonably warm winter, raising concerns about climate change. This warm weather comes after the world recently experienced its hottest month on record. Many parts of Australia’s east, including Sydney, have been experiencing T-shirt weather with temperatures reaching over 25°C. However, at high altitudes, snowfall has been lackluster, causing a delay in the start of the ski season.
This warm winter weather in Australia is the result of both natural climate drivers and continued global warming. Warmer and drier conditions have dominated since early July due to a high-pressure system lingering over the country. These clear conditions have led to record-breaking warm temperatures during the daytime. For example, Canberra and Sydney experienced their warmest Julys on record, even though frosty mornings were still frequent.
The high-pressure system has caused the air over Australia’s interior to warm. When cold fronts move across southern Australia, they push this warm air ahead of them, resulting in warm and windy conditions along the southern coast. This weather pattern is similar to what is seen in the summer months when cities like Adelaide and Melbourne experience their hottest days.
The ocean temperatures around Australia are slightly cooler than average in some areas, but globally, ocean temperatures are above normal in various regions, indicating the development of an El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole. These natural climate drivers reduce the amount of atmospheric moisture over southern and eastern Australia and weaken low-pressure systems, resulting in reduced rainfall in those regions.
The weather outlook for the coming months suggests that warm and dry conditions will continue across Australia. Winter and spring are expected to be drier than normal in the southwest of Western Australia and much of the east, with above-average temperatures forecasted for the entire country. However, there may still be occasional cool and wet spells.
Climate change is undoubtedly a factor in Australia’s record winter warmth. Land areas in Australia have already warmed by 1.4°C since pre-industrial times due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels, which release greenhouse gases. The increasing trend of warm Australian winters is consistent with the impact of human-caused climate change. The likelihood of very warm winters has increased significantly over time.
While Australia’s warm winter weather may seem harmless compared to the extreme heatwaves experienced in the Northern Hemisphere, it is still a cause for concern. Warm winters can have negative effects on various parts of the economy, such as the ski industry, and disrupt flora and fauna. Additionally, they increase the risk of flash droughts and may lead to an earlier start to the fire season in the southeast of the country.
Extreme heat events and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense globally due to high-pressure weather systems blocking the movement of low-pressure systems. Human-caused climate change is further exacerbating these events, as seen in recent heatwaves in China, North America, and Europe. Experts suggest that extreme heat events should no longer be viewed as unusual, given the effects of climate change.
It is essential to recognize and understand the driving forces behind Australia’s warm winter weather and to take urgent action to stabilize the Earth’s climate by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. While the current pleasant conditions may be enjoyable, it is crucial to address the underlying issue of climate change and its potential impacts on our planet.
