Armenia and Azerbaijan are nearing a comprehensive peace agreement in the long-standing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to recent statements made by both countries’ leaders. This development comes after weeks of tensions and fears of a new conflict between the neighboring nations. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced during a conference in Georgia that his government could sign an agreement on peace and the establishment of relationships with Azerbaijan in the coming months. He also introduced a project called Crossroads of Peace aimed at reopening road and railway links that have been blocked for decades due to the conflict.
The recent initiative follows Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive to take control of the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has faced decades of fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the dissolution of the USSR. As a result, around 100,000 ethnic Armenians were forced to flee their homes when their unrecognized breakaway state collapsed after three decades of de facto autonomy.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov expressed optimism, stating that the military actions taken by Azerbaijan provide real chances for the conclusion of a peace treaty in a short period of time. Furthermore, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy chief emphasized that the country has no intention of using force to seize territory across internationally recognized borders, despite concerns about a potential conflict over transport routes.
Previous mediation efforts by the United States, the European Union, and Russia have failed to prevent violence and have often resulted in deadlocked discussions regarding transport connectivity and border demarcation.
According to Vasif Huseynov, head of department at Azerbaijan’s AIR Center think tank, the conflict has posed a significant obstacle for regional integration and the full utilization of the South Caucasus’ potential. He believes that resolving the conflict is in Azerbaijan’s interest as it will positively impact regional projects, including connectivity and energy pipelines.
However, expectations in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, are more cautious. Tigran Grigoryan, head of Armenia’s Regional Center for Democracy and Security, suggests that the peace treaty should not be perceived as the end of the process. He anticipates that Azerbaijan will maintain its maximalist approach and continue to pressure Armenia to achieve its desired outcomes.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan has previously expressed disappointment in the Russian peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh and stressed the need to resolve issues with neighboring countries directly, instead of relying on Moscow’s support. In a recent interview, he indicated a desire to diversify relationships in the security sphere, implying that he no longer sees a purpose for Russia’s military bases on Armenian soil.
As both Armenia and Azerbaijan move closer to a comprehensive peace agreement, it remains to be seen how this will impact the longstanding conflict and pave the way for better regional relations. The Crossroads of Peace project, along with the reopening of road and railway links, could play a crucial role in fostering cooperation and connectivity between the two nations. However, challenges and tensions are expected to persist, particularly as differing expectations and approaches come into play.
