Extreme dryness during the planting and early growing season has posed a significant threat to corn and soybean crops in the United States. However, the extent of the impact on crop potential remains uncertain due to the lack of widespread data collection from the fields. To shed light on the situation, the highly anticipated Pro Farmer Crop Tour will commence on Monday, spanning four days and covering seven major production states in the U.S. Corn Belt.
As an experienced participant on the western half of the tour for the tenth time, with an unbroken streak of eight consecutive tours, I have become familiar with identifying anomalies. Last year, I witnessed the devastating effect of drought on Nebraska’s crops, which reminded me of the dire conditions experienced in 2012.
This year, my focus will be on collecting data from Illinois, where dryness during May and most of June led to crop conditions plummeting to some of the lowest-ever recorded levels, reminiscent of 2012. Although substantial rainfall occurred in July and early August across much of the state, the size of corn ears is determined before pollination takes place.
I will closely monitor the number of kernel rows around the ear, specifically examining if they are lower than normal. On the 2021 tour, kernel rows in Illinois averaged 16.32 out of 239 samples. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that Illinois corn yield for 2023 will be similar to that of 2021.
Furthermore, the dryness may have affected the length of grain fill along the ear and the number of viable ears, all of which will be metrics collected by scouts during the tour. While I will diligently track this data for all states, Illinois will serve as a prime example due to this year’s rapid planting and the decline in crop conditions, which was not as severe in other states.
Despite recent ample rainfall in the majority of the Corn Belt, leading corn producer Iowa and southern Minnesota have continued to experience drier conditions, with 74% of Iowa currently facing drought conditions.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour extensively covers Iowa, encompassing all 99 counties, and therefore, the scouts’ data should provide a comprehensive assessment of whether the recent below-average rainfall has occurred in a timely manner to maintain high crop potential. The USDA forecasts Iowa’s corn yield to be slightly lower than the record set in 2021, which was also achieved despite dry conditions with well-timed showers.
During the four-day tour, scouts will visit over 1,000 corn and soybean fields across Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio, and South Dakota. Many scouts will share crop photos on the social media platform X throughout the week, utilizing the hashtag #pftour23.
While visually striking photos of compromised corn ears tend to generate considerable engagement, it is important to consider the overall data rather than focusing solely on individual images. State-level results will be published each night, and I will promptly post them on my X feed as they are released.
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, celebrating its 31st year, follows the same routes annually, although not every production area in each state is covered. Therefore, it is crucial to compare the tour findings with past tour data rather than relying solely on USDA forecasts, particularly in the case of corn. I will include these comparisons in my posts.
The tour utilizes a rough calculation to estimate corn yield, while soybean yield is not directly estimated. Instead, scouts assess the number of pods in a three-by-three-foot plot of soybean plants as an indicator of yield potential.
For instance, last year’s average pod count in Nebraska was 1,064 pods, approximately 15% below the three-year tour average and the lowest count since 2012. Nebraska’s final soybean yield in 2021 was the lowest since 2012, approximately 18% below the 2019-2021 average.
Pro Farmer, the advisory service and host of the tour, typically publishes a national yield estimate and select state forecasts on the Friday following the tour’s conclusion. These estimates incorporate the tour findings along with other factors influencing yields.
