As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, uncertainty looms over the future of the country under Joe Biden’s administration. While wars continue to rage in Europe and the Middle East, senior officials suggest that there will be no significant shift in Washington’s foreign policy, particularly regarding Asia, before the election.
The ongoing strategic competition with China and the importance of the Indo-Pacific region in the race for global influence are expected to remain at the forefront of U.S. foreign policy. This perspective is widely shared by both Democrats and Republicans, who recognize China’s aspirations for a new global order as the most critical long-term issue facing the United States.
Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, highlights that while there may be continuity in U.S. foreign policy towards the Indo-Pacific, there are uncertainties regarding Washington’s engagement in Europe. The United States will likely have to make tough choices about its commitments and resources, potentially reducing its involvement in Europe to focus more on the Indo-Pacific. Grieco also emphasizes the need for discussions about burden sharing among European allies.
Despite foreign policy often playing a minor role in U.S. presidential elections compared to domestic issues, Biden has achieved some diplomatic successes since taking office. These include strengthening alliances with democratic countries in the Indo-Pacific through minilateral groups, rebuilding defense cooperation with the Philippines, and establishing a strategic partnership with Vietnam.
However, the Israel-Hamas war presents a challenge for the Biden administration. The President cannot afford to lose support among younger voters and nonwhite Democrats, demographics that played a crucial role in securing his victory in 2020. Polls indicate that these groups increasingly disapprove of Biden’s handling of the conflict, perceiving him as overly supportive of Israel’s military campaign and indifferent to Palestinian civilian casualties.
With the Israel-Hamas conflict dominating U.S. media coverage, other foreign policy priorities of the administration have taken a backseat. Despite this, U.S. officials reassure allies in the Indo-Pacific region that the administration remains committed to promoting a rules-based order and enhancing security in the region.
Mireya Solis, director of the Center for East Asia Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution, argues that the upcoming presidential election will cast a shadow over diplomatic dynamics. Maintaining the mechanisms of cooperation established by the current administration beyond the election will be crucial for the United States to sustain its leadership in global affairs.
Looking ahead to other elections in 2024, including Taiwan’s leadership election and Japan’s ruling party election, it is expected that both the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates will adopt hawkish stances towards China. Economic security will also continue to be a major focus, but the United States is not likely to pursue an ambitious multilateral trade deal.
The Biden administration’s lack of a compelling economic agenda and vision for integration with Indo-Pacific partners is viewed as a weakness. The difficulty in achieving substantial progress on the trade pillar of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework reveals the vulnerability of the administration’s initiative to counter China’s influence in the region.
In conclusion, as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the future of the country remains uncertain. The Biden administration and experts believe that U.S. foreign policy, particularly towards Asia, will largely remain unchanged. China’s global ambitions and the importance of the Indo-Pacific will continue to be the central focus. However, challenges such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and the administration’s economic agenda provide significant hurdles. The upcoming election and other international elections in 2024 further add to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. foreign policy and global affairs.
