New Delhi, Dec 24 – Climate change poses a significant threat to agriculture, leading to a worrisome decline in the growth rate of the sector. India’s agriculture output was heavily affected by erratic monsoon patterns this year, resulting in a rise in food inflation and prompting the government to implement measures such as export restrictions to mitigate the impact.
During the July-September quarter, the growth rate of the agriculture sector plummeted to a mere 1.2 percent as the kharif (summer) production took a hit due to unpredictable weather conditions. The adverse effects of climate change have spilled over into the ongoing rabi (winter) season, with the total sown area experiencing a decline of over three percent. The below-normal monsoon has caused moisture deficiency in the soil and reduced water storage in reservoirs, leading to a decrease in the acreage under wheat and pulses by three percent and eight percent, respectively. This decline raises concerns about a potential decrease in overall food production in the future.
Policymakers and the scientific community are now grappling with the challenge of formulating dynamic response strategies to tackle the complex issue of climate change, especially in rain-fed agricultural regions. Despite the current decline in rabi acreage, officials in the agriculture ministry remain hopeful that the gap can be narrowed in the coming weeks. They anticipate that the overall sown areas for rabi crops may reach the average levels of the past five years.
Officials attribute the reduced acreage for pulses to late harvesting of kharif crops like paddy and a trend towards crop diversification. However, there is some relief in the fact that the acreage for oilseeds, including mustard and rapeseeds, has increased by 1 lakh hectares compared to the previous year. This increase is expected to help reduce the country’s import bill for edible oils and enhance self-sufficiency.
Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Narendra Singh Tomar highlighted earlier this year that various climate-resilient seeds and technologies have been developed to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events on crops. These measures aim to enhance the resilience of the agricultural sector.
India, being the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, rice, and sugar, had to impose restrictions on exports of these commodities to control domestic prices, resulting in a decline in agricultural exports by an estimated $4 billion to $5 billion this year. However, senior government officials remain optimistic about other farm commodity exports offsetting the deficit caused by the export restrictions on key staples. The exports of meat and dairy, cereal preparations, and fruits and vegetables have seen growth between April and November this year, according to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA).
The first advance estimates of kharif production indicate a significant decline in foodgrain production to a four-year-low of 148.6 million tonnes, which is 4.6 percent lower than last year’s final estimates. Even crops with increased sown areas this year, such as sugarcane, rice, and coarse cereals, are expected to witness a dip in output. The report by rating agency ICRA suggests that the decline in crop output is larger than the fall in sown areas, indicating a contraction in yields.
Apart from climate-related challenges, unseasonal rains triggered by climate change have also damaged crops, affecting around 8.68 lakh hectares of crop area across states this year. The erratic monsoon patterns, including a delayed start, excess rain, and subsequent deficit rainfall, have adversely impacted standing crops, especially in regions like Punjab and Haryana.
Another critical concern for the agricultural sector is the water availability in reservoirs across the country. With deficient rainfall this year, the water storage in reservoirs is reported to be approximately 75 percent of last year’s levels, which could impact agricultural output in the upcoming rabi season.
Addressing the challenges posed by climate change and balancing crop diversification while addressing moisture deficit are crucial for securing robust food grain output in the upcoming season. The resilience of the agricultural sector and strategic measures taken by the government, such as the development of climate-resilient seeds and technologies, provide hope for a potential rebound.
The gravity of the situation calls for concerted efforts from policymakers, scientists, and farmers to adapt to the changing climate and implement sustainable practices that safeguard food security and support the rural economy.
