Some parts of the UK could become home to mosquitoes capable of spreading dengue fever, chikungunya, and the Zika virus by the 2040s and 2050s, according to a new study by the UK Health Security Agency. The study, based on a worst-case climate scenario with high emissions and a 4C rise in temperatures by 2100, warns of various impacts including a rise in heat-related deaths and flooding. However, the report highlights that swift action, such as significant cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, could help avoid many of the potential problems.
The report, which involved 90 experts and gathered evidence of the current health impacts of climate change, also made projections for a worst-case scenario if global commitments to address climate change are not met. Current estimates from the United Nations Environment Programme suggest that the world is on track for a 2.7C warming by 2100 based on current pledges, although the exact figures remain uncertain.
One major concern highlighted by the report is the potential for invasive species, such as the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), to establish themselves in the UK. While these mosquitoes only become carriers of harmful viruses after biting infected individuals, the report suggests that London could see regular cases of dengue fever by 2060. Dengue fever, commonly found in tropical regions, can cause severe illness in humans. England would be the first country in the UK to be affected, with Wales, Northern Ireland, and parts of the Scottish Lowlands also becoming suitable habitats for these mosquitoes later in the century. Similar mosquitoes have already caused cases of dengue fever in France and chikungunya virus in Italy in recent years.
To address this potential threat, the UK Health Security Agency has implemented a surveillance system to rapidly detect invasive mosquitoes, including a network of traps at UK borders that can detect mosquito eggs. Dr. Jolyon Medlock, from the UKHSA, suggests that this system would need to be expanded in the worst-case scenario. Additionally, individuals would need to take precautions to prevent the mosquitoes from establishing a home in the UK, such as safely storing water to avoid providing breeding grounds for them.
The report emphasizes that slowing down and reducing the rate of warming could delay these risks by several decades or even beyond this century. However, once these mosquitoes have arrived, their establishment is difficult to reverse. The report outlines other potential consequences of climate change, including health inequalities, with vulnerable groups such as older individuals, those with medical conditions, people living in deprived areas, and children being most affected.
The UK Health Security Agency stresses the importance of targeted interventions and adaptations to mitigate these risks. By taking necessary action, many of the potential problems could be averted. The report calls for continued efforts to address climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to ensure the UK can safeguard against the looming threat of mosquito-borne diseases.
Overall, the study offers a stark warning about the potential risks posed by climate change in the form of mosquito-borne diseases. With the right measures in place, there is still hope to prevent the worst consequences, but urgent action is required to tackle climate change and protect public health.
