Russia’s Calculated Moves: Shifting Focus from Ukraine as Gaza Conflict Unfolds
In recent weeks, the global spotlight has been on the conflict between Israel and Gaza, diverting attention away from Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. However, this shift in focus has not deterred Russia from its determination to dismantle Ukraine and undermine its Western allies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia has no intention of involving itself in the Gaza conflict due to its strong relations with all parties involved. However, history tells a different story. Even during Soviet times, when Russia openly criticized the US and Israel, it sought to exploit the region’s conflicts for its own benefit. Under Putin’s leadership, Russia has pragmatically aligned itself with countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Hamas, and Israel, deepening its relations with each one.
The relationship between Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been shaped by a balance of fears and a recognition of each other’s tenacity and ruthlessness. However, it has also been influenced by changing circumstances, such as the diminishing presence of the US in the Middle East.
Over the past fifteen years, this relationship has brought mutual benefits. Russia turned a blind eye to Israeli actions in Lebanon and Syria, while Israel refused to join Western sanctions against Russia. However, the war in Ukraine has drastically altered Russia’s priorities. It now prioritizes rupturing the West, the war in Ukraine, ties with Iran, sabotaging the US-sponsored Saudi-Israel alliance, and driving wedges between the Western powers and the global South.
Russia now views Israel as the Achilles heel of the United States. Washington may pledge support for Ukraine, but it cannot afford to let Israel fail. Israel’s predictability, born out of its history and commitment to self-defense, makes it vulnerable. The recent attack on October 6th was not only a devastating blow to the Jewish community but also a demonstration of reflexive control – the defeat of an adversary by manipulating their own actions.
The fate of Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan are interconnected, with the credibility of the United States being a crucial factor. The Kremlin believes that the removal of these countries from the political map would mean the end of the Western world as we know it.
While it remains unclear whether Russia was complicit in Hamas’s attack, its longstanding relationship with the group suggests it had knowledge of the operation. The close consultation between Russia and Hamas, as well as Iran’s involvement, strengthens this suspicion.
Russian President Putin has often been seen as a master strategist, but many of his actions have led to lose-lose outcomes. The return of US military power to the Middle East poses a potential threat to Russia’s interests in Iran. A conflict between Israel and Iran, or even the US and Iran, could disrupt Russia’s supply of military equipment from Iran and expose its limitations.
While Russia may pay a heavy price for the harm it has caused, the damage it can inflict in the meantime is likely to remain unmatched. Russia’s ability to confound, subvert, and undermine its adversaries will continue to pose significant challenges for the international community.
In conclusion, while the focus of the world may have shifted to the conflict in Gaza, Russia’s determination to dismantle Ukraine and undermine the West remains unchanged. The complex relationships between Russia, Israel, and the US, along with the intertwined fates of Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan, highlight the high stakes involved in the geopolitical landscape. As Russia continues to exploit conflicts and pursue its strategic objectives, the world faces ongoing uncertainty and the potential for far-reaching consequences.
(This article is a revised version of the original article published in Postimees on October 26, 2022.)
