New Zealand’s political landscape has experienced a dramatic shift with the recent fall of the Labour Party and the uncertain future it now faces. After six years in power, the party went from winning an outright majority in the 2020 election to finishing a distant second in the election held on October 14. This reflects a broader pattern of political volatility and the rejection of incumbents seen in many countries.
The rise of former Labour leader Jacinda Ardern captivated the public when she took the helm of her party in August 2017. Ardern, who became the country’s youngest-ever prime minister, was hailed as a breath of fresh air, offering a brand of politics that was approachable and empathetic. Her international profile was unprecedented for a New Zealand prime minister.
The Labour Party’s success in the 2020 election was largely attributed to its effective response to the pandemic, which was said to have saved around 20,000 lives. This presented an opportunity for Ardern and her government to pursue an ambitious agenda. They made progress in areas such as decriminalizing abortion, implementing stricter gun control laws, and strengthening workplace rights. However, they faced criticism for an overcrowded legislative agenda, a perceived lack of progress on child poverty, and increasing concerns about high inflation.
In January 2023, Ardern announced her resignation as prime minister. Her popularity, along with that of her party, had waned due to the soaring cost of living, which some blamed on prolonged pandemic lockdowns. Ardern also faced a barrage of online abuse, including misogynistic attacks, and threats against her almost tripled over a two-year period.
Following Ardern’s departure, Chris Hipkins took over as prime minister with a focus on bread-and-butter issues. However, this strategy did not resonate with voters, and the Labour Party was the only major party to lose votes in the recent election. The right-wing National Party, along with the Act Party and NZ First, gained support at Labour’s expense. Additionally, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori, which advocates for Indigenous rights, saw an increase in support.
The formation of the new government remains uncertain, as the final results are yet to be determined. Over half a million provisional votes, including those from New Zealanders living overseas, still need to be counted. Additionally, a by-election will be held due to the death of a candidate. The National Party is expected to lead a coalition government, with Christopher Luxon as prime minister, but it may need to form an alliance with Act and NZ First to secure a majority.
The potential change in government raises concerns about the future of key issues such as climate change. Despite New Zealand experiencing extreme weather events, the climate crisis was largely absent from the election campaign. The current government, under Hipkins, scrapped transport reforms aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Act, which is likely to be part of the new government, aims to abolish the Climate Change Commission and the Zero Carbon Act, which sets emissions reduction targets.
Furthermore, the co-governance initiatives between the government and Māori representatives, based on New Zealand’s Treaty of Waitangi, are likely to come to an end. All parties that may be involved in the new government have criticized these efforts, with Act and NZ First claiming that they prioritize Māori rights over other population groups. This divisive stance could lead to increased polarization and division within New Zealand society.
The political volatility in New Zealand serves as a reminder of the impact of the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis, exacerbated by global events like Russia’s war on Ukraine. In a span of just three years, strong political support for the Labour Party evaporated. This highlights the need for civil society to adapt quickly and defend the gains that have been made, while also addressing new challenges. Balancing different perspectives and maintaining a focus on key issues will be crucial in navigating the uncertain road ahead for New Zealand’s political landscape.
