Wet Weather Forecasted for Gulf Coast and South Alabama, Potential Tropical Development
Good morning! Today we are expecting warmer temperatures compared to yesterday as we start off the day in the 50s, some isolated spots in the upper 40s mainly along and north of Interstate 20/59. With southwesterly winds continuing at 10 to 15 mph, temperatures will likely climb a few degrees above average today, with highs in the lower 80s.
As for the weather, we are currently dry with a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky. However, we will see increasing clouds throughout the day, resulting in a partly to mostly cloudy sky with some filtered sunshine this afternoon. If you plan on going out this evening, it will likely remain dry with a mostly cloudy sky, and temperatures are forecast to cool into the lower 70s by 7 p.m.
Looking ahead, we are closely monitoring a stalled boundary in the Gulf of Mexico that will bring tropical moisture into the southeast starting from Wednesday. This boundary will absorb the moisture from Hurricane Lidia, located in the eastern Pacific Ocean, as well as a low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, we can expect very wet weather along the Gulf Coast and into south Alabama on Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday morning.
On Wednesday morning, we will start off dry with a mostly cloudy sky, and temperatures will be warmer, ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. It is advisable to carry an umbrella with you as showers will be possible in the afternoon and evening, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 20/59. We have increased our rain chance to 40 percent, although most of the rain that falls in the evening will likely remain light, with heavier rainfall expected to the south. With plenty of cloud cover, temperatures will trend cooler, with highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Scattered showers will remain likely on Wednesday night at 60 percent.
In terms of rainfall, Central Alabama will have a big cutoff in potential rainfall over the next three days. The higher totals will be seen farther south in the state, with areas along Interstate 20/59 potentially picking up a few tenths of an inch. Parts of Chilton, Coosa, Clay, and Tallapoosa counties may even record a half-inch or more. Meanwhile, south Alabama and the Gulf Coast may experience a few inches of rainfall.
By early Thursday morning, most of the tropical moisture is expected to move out of central Alabama. We will have a 20 percent chance for rain before 10 a.m., and temperatures will cool into the upper 50s. Highs will remain in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy conditions and easterly winds.
Moving on, we are forecasting another strong cold front that will move into Alabama early Saturday morning. However, this cold front will have limited moisture associated with it, resulting in isolated rain chances of 20 percent on Friday and Friday night. Friday’s weather will be partly to mostly cloudy, with morning temperatures in the low to mid-60s and highs in the upper 70s. Parts of west Alabama could briefly reach the lower 80s. Saturday is expected to be a nice and breezy day with northerly winds, and high temperatures are forecasted to reach the mid-70s.
Looking further ahead, long-range models indicate cooler temperatures arriving on Sunday and persisting through the middle of next week. High temperatures could remain in the mid-to-upper 60s starting from Sunday, with overnight lows cooling into the 40s. Rain chances are possible around October 19 through 20, but for the most part, we can expect a dry week.
In terms of tropical updates, we are closely monitoring two areas that could potentially develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five to seven days. The first is a weak area of low pressure located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, with a 20 percent chance of tropical formation. It is expected to merge with tropical moisture from Hurricane Lidia, bringing wet weather along the Gulf Coast and into Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. The second area of interest is a tropical wave off the coast of Africa, which has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days. Models suggest that this system will remain in the open waters of the eastern/central Atlantic Ocean and will unlikely impact the United States.
That concludes our weather update for today. Stay tuned for further developments and stay prepared for wet weather in the coming days.
