Title: Devastating Floods in Libya Cause Extensive Damage and Loss of Life
The recent devastating floods in Libya have resulted in widespread destruction and loss of life, leaving the country reeling from the immense economic toll. The city of Derna was particularly affected, with nearly a quarter of the city submerged and entire neighborhoods flattened. The floods, triggered by torrential rains from Storm Daniel, caused two dams to collapse near the eastern port city, leading to devastating flash flooding on September 10.
Government officials and aid agencies have reported varying death tolls, ranging from 4,000 to over 11,000 people. Furthermore, more than 880,000 individuals have been directly impacted by the floods, according to the United Nations. The country now faces the daunting task of assessing the damage and beginning the challenging process of rebuilding.
Francois Conradie, the lead political economist at Oxford Economics Africa, highlights the significant economic impact that the floods will have on Libya. The devastation will stem from various factors, including the loss of life, the reconstruction of infrastructure, the decline in household demand, and increased government spending on emergency measures. These factors will contribute to a massive economic setback for a country that already faced multiple socioeconomic challenges prior to the floods. High unemployment rates, over-reliance on the oil sector, political fragmentation, and volatile security conditions already strained Libya’s economy.
Nassib Ghobril, head of economic research and analysis at Byblos Bank, emphasizes the urgency of rescue and reconstruction efforts following the floods. The destruction caused by the floods will result in significant output losses for the economy, further exacerbating the existing challenges. Humanitarian agencies are seeking $71.4 million to address the urgent needs of the affected population, targeting 250,000 individuals out of the estimated 884,000 people who require assistance over the next three months.
The severity of the destruction in Derna sheds light on two fundamental governance errors. Analyst Jason Pack identifies the poor condition of the dams of death – the Wadi Derna and Wadi Al Rakha dams – as one of the governance failures. These dams, like much of Libya’s critical infrastructure, have long been in need of maintenance. Although funds had been allocated for their repair, various issues, including the security situation, foreign government travel advice, delayed payments to contractors, and visa problems, have prevented the necessary work from being carried out.
The second governance failure lies in the lack of precautionary measures in place, revealing dysfunctionalities within Libya’s political system and economy. These failures have raised questions about the country’s ability to effectively manage critical infrastructure and prioritize public safety.
Libya, as the seventh-largest crude oil producer in OPEC, has been striving to boost oil production after years of conflict and political instability. However, the country remains heavily dependent on the hydrocarbons sector, which accounts for approximately 95% of its exports and nearly all government revenues. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has emphasized the importance of political stability and institutional development for the success of Libya’s economic reforms. The IMF further advises the Libyan government to focus on strengthening institutions, upholding the rule of law, and diversifying the economy away from oil and gas to foster inclusive private sector growth.
While the recent floods had a limited impact on Libya’s crude facilities, the country still faces challenges in achieving its production targets. International oil companies, including Eni and TotalEnergies, have expressed interest in investing in the country’s oil and gas sector despite the volatile political situation. Rystad Energy predicts that Libya will reach an average production of just over 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of this year. However, the country’s ambitious goals of reaching 1.3 million bpd by year-end and 2 million bpd by 2027 will require significant infrastructure improvements and stability.
In conclusion, the devastating floods in Libya have dealt a severe blow to the country, resulting in extensive damage, loss of life, and a significant economic toll. Rebuilding efforts and addressing the immediate needs of the affected population require substantial financial support from international organizations and governments. It is crucial for Libya to prioritize infrastructure maintenance, strengthen governance mechanisms, and diversify its economy to ensure long-term stability and a more resilient future.
