Where is Lithuania’s ruling Homeland Union headed to?
The unexpected presence of coalition participants has become a recurring phenomenon in Lithuania’s politics. On two separate occasions, the Nation’s Resurrection Party in 2008 and the Freedom Party in 2020 emerged unexpectedly to secure seats in Parliament. Both instances had a significant impact on the formation of governing coalitions, enabling the Homeland Union, the Liberal Movement, and the Union of Liberals and Centre to establish power.
The emergence of the Freedom Party in the 2020 elections showcased the influence of young politicians and newcomers in politics. This party attracted a considerable number of young voters and outperformed the Liberal Movement in the multi-member constituency. Its inclusion in the coalition allowed the Christian Democrats and the Liberals to form a government. One may wonder if this occurrence is just a coincidence, as it is the second time a party’s sudden appearance has helped the Homeland Union become the ruling party in Lithuania.
However, this alliance with newcomers to politics has posed challenges for the Homeland Union. Working in a coalition with the Nation’s Resurrection Party was not easy, and the same applies to the Freedom Party. The freedomists came to parliament with promises that not all Christian Democrats approved of, such as the decriminalization of soft drugs and the introduction of gender-neutral partnerships. These controversial topics highlight the unpreparedness of Lithuanian society for such drastic changes. Consequently, the Freedom Party’s ratings have remained consistently low, indicating that it is unlikely to secure a place in the future Lithuanian Parliament.
While the ruling coalition may appear fragile, Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte has refrained from making changes to the government’s composition. This decision is puzzling to many, considering the public criticisms directed at several ministers. For instance, Health Minister Arunas Dulkys faced substantial criticism during the pandemic. However, as the pandemic subsided, the focus on the minister diminished, leaving the public uncertain about his performance. Dulkys recently sparked a minor controversy by expressing uncertainty about how hospitals would handle wounded individuals if shelling occurred in Lithuanian cities.
Another highly regarded minister, Arvydas Anusauskas, Minister of National Defense, faced unexpected criticism from General Ben Hodges, the former Commander of the US Ground Forces in Europe. Hodges pointed out gaps in Lithuania’s defense preparedness, leading to doubts about the country’s ability to respond to an imminent war. The fact that Minister Anusauskas refused to attend meetings of the Seimas Committee on National Security and Defense due to a dispute with Chairman Laurynas Kasciunas further complicates the situation.
Experts in the field of education have also raised concerns about the ongoing transformation of the education system. Even renowned teachers have expressed doubts and highlighted a lack of consultation between the Ministry of Education, Science, and Sport and the education community. The absence of input from civil society regarding questionable reforms raises questions about the government’s decision-making process in this area.
In addition to the education sector, the agricultural community is demanding the resignation or dismissal of Agriculture Minister Kestutis Navickas. Despite these calls, Prime Minister Simonyte has not taken any action. This leads to speculation about her political future, as a minister’s resignation carries political implications for both the party and the individual. The value of a politician is often measured by the electoral votes they receive, and if a minister fails to address the concerns of the professional group they are meant to represent, their worth in future elections may diminish.
Simonyte’s reluctance to refresh the government’s composition raises questions about her own political aspirations. Some suggest that she may consider ending her political career after this term. However, concerns remain regarding the future of the party. There are rumors that she may run for the post of Chairman of the Homeland Union next year.
Overall, the ruling coalition appears to be experiencing challenges and tensions. The criticisms directed at various ministers and the inadequacies highlighted in different sectors raise doubts about the effectiveness and unity of the government. As Lithuania navigates its political landscape, it remains to be seen where the Homeland Union will ultimately lead the country and whether the unexpected coalition participants will continue to exert their influence.
