In a bid to counter the skewed cost-to-benefit ratio in the ongoing Ukraine war, the US Air Force (USAF) has launched an initiative to develop cheap, mass-produced missiles. The aim is to overwhelm enemy defenses with an onslaught of low-cost cruise missiles, taking inspiration from their adversaries’ tactics.
The Weapons Program Executive (PEO) Design and Sprint Challenge initiative, led by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) and the AFWERX military innovation center, will focus on developing advanced weapons technologies and strategies. The initiative’s first development goal is to create a low-cost cruise missile that can be produced on a large scale.
The US intends for the final product to not only be affordable but also accessible to its partner nations and allies in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. This move suggests that Washington is considering the potential use of such missiles in various regions, including countering the military capabilities of Russia and China.
The development of low-cost cruise missiles comes in response to Russia’s demonstrated capacity to engage and exhaust sophisticated surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. By replicating this tactic, the US aims to acquire a similar capability and overwhelm enemy Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS).
China, with its vast arsenal of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, presents another significant challenge. The US intends to counter the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Air Force and Navy with mass attacks from cheap and highly accurate cruise missiles. Such a strategy could effectively disrupt and degrade China’s defenses.
The initial phase of the Weapons PEO Challenge involves designing a test vehicle as the foundational architecture for future low-cost missiles. This vehicle should have a range of 500 nautical miles, high subsonic speed, and a target cost of $150,000 per unit for bulk orders. The participating teams are also expected to prioritize affordability, mass delivery, scalability, and accessibility for partner nations and allies.
While Ukraine has experienced a significant number of shootdowns, it has been forced to use costly Western-origin missile systems such as the Patriot PAC-3, NASAMS, and IRIS-T. In contrast, Russia has steadily manufactured its own missiles, exemplifying the need for the US to develop a cost-effective solution.
The US has recognized this problem for some time, particularly as strategic tensions with China have escalated in the western Pacific. Previous programs like the USAF’s Rapid Dragon have explored launching groups of low-cost cruise missiles from transport aircraft to address this challenge.
However, the current effort by AFWERX is a long-term undertaking. The initial focus will be on developing a simple cruise missile that can be launched in coordination with other missiles to overwhelm enemy SAM assets. The goal is to create a missile that can speed towards its target area and disrupt enemy defenses.
Advanced capabilities such as target tracking, mid-course updates, and changing direction during the terminal phase of an attack are unlikely to be incorporated at this stage. These features would increase the per unit cost significantly, making them less feasible for mass production.
The US Air Force envisions a coordinated onslaught of cheap and mass-produced cruise missiles as a key element of future aerial actions. One mass salvo of these missiles could be synchronized with other missions, including air-to-ground strikes or air dominance operations.
By focusing on the development of low-cost cruise missiles, the US hopes to address the cost disparity in modern warfare. This initiative not only aims to counter adversaries’ tactics but also provides a valuable tool for the US and its allies in various regions around the world.
The real-world applications of this initiative, however, remain to be seen. It will take time for the participating teams to develop the technical configuration for an effective and affordable cruise missile. Nonetheless, the US Air Force’s commitment to this initiative demonstrates its determination to adapt to the evolving challenges of modern warfare.
