Turkey Aims to Boost Regional Influence and Solve Food Inflation Through Black Sea Grain Initiative
Ankara is working tirelessly to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative as part of its strategy to strengthen its regional influence and acquire affordable grains, according to analysts. The agreement, which was brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in Istanbul in July 2022, suffered a setback when Russia pulled out on July 17, citing unfulfilled obligations by its counterparts. Since then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his diplomatic team have been engaged in intense efforts to revive the deal.
President Erdogan has held phone conversations with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts, expressing hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Turkey in August to discuss the grain deal. The revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative holds significant advantages for Turkey, including regional influence, prestige, and access to low-cost grains, as stated by Batu Coskun, an independent political risk analyst based in Ankara. Acting as an intermediary between Ukraine and Russia, Turkey wants to use the re-establishment of the grain deal as a means of reconciliation between Moscow and Kyiv. Turkey sees this as a step towards achieving permanent peace and wants to capitalize on its previous diplomatic success.
Economic reasons also play a crucial role in Turkey’s motivation to reinstate the Black Sea Grain Initiative, given its ongoing economic challenges, particularly food inflation. Kerim Has, an analyst based in Moscow, explained that over 80 percent of the wheat imported by Turkey comes from Russia and Ukraine, with Turkey being Russia’s largest client. Russia’s withdrawal from the initiative, which facilitated the export of Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea, led to a sharp increase in global grain prices and concerns about an impending food crisis.
Turkey has urged Western countries to address Russia’s grievances and expressed its hope for Russia’s return to the deal. President Erdogan, in a televised statement on August 8, warned against the potential escalation of military conflict in the Black Sea following Russia’s withdrawal. He emphasized the importance of preserving regional stability and reiterated Turkey’s commitment to implementing the 1936 Montreux Convention, which grants Turkey control over the Bosporus and the Dardanelles.
In summary, Turkey is actively working to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative to enhance its regional influence, address food inflation, and strengthen diplomatic ties between Russia and Ukraine. With economic interests and hopes of achieving permanent peace in the region, Turkey is determined to secure a reinstatement of the grain deal.
