Donald Trump emerged victorious in New Hampshire’s Republican primary, according to projections by Edison Research. This win solidifies Trump’s position as the dominant figure within the party as he moves closer to a potential rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden in November.
With 14% of the expected vote counted, Trump secured 52.3% of the tally, while former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley trailed behind with 46.6%. Haley had hoped to capitalize on the state’s significant independent voter base to secure an upset victory and weaken Trump’s hold on the Republican Party.
Trump’s back-to-back wins in both Iowa and New Hampshire mark a significant milestone, making him the first Republican candidate since 1976 to sweep the competitive votes in both states. These two states have historically been the first two nominating contests, solidifying their importance in the presidential primary race.
The final margin of victory is still uncertain, but the outcome is likely to intensify calls from within the Republican Party for Haley to exit the race. Despite these calls, Haley’s campaign emphasized their determination to remain in the race until Super Tuesday, scheduled for early March when 16 states hold their primary elections simultaneously.
South Carolina is the next state to hold its primary on February 24, and although Haley hails from there and served two terms as governor, Trump has secured endorsements from most prominent Republican figures in the state. Opinion polls also indicate Trump enjoying a significant lead.
Haley finished third in Iowa, narrowly trailing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. She focused much of her early campaign efforts on New Hampshire, recognizing the state’s moderate electorate as potentially offering her the best chance of winning against Trump.
Throughout the day, Haley expressed her determination to strengthen her position: You just want to keep getting stronger and stronger and stronger. That’s our goal, she said in Manchester.
While Trump’s victory in New Hampshire is noteworthy, exit polls revealed potential vulnerabilities for him in a general election campaign. Approximately half of the Republican primary voters stated that if convicted in court, Trump would not be fit to serve. These voters echoed the sentiment of many Americans who disapproved of Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss and his possession of classified documents after leaving the White House.
A similar number of voters indicated their skepticism about the legitimacy of Biden’s victory in the 2020 election, aligning with Trump’s baseless claims of widespread election fraud.
Edison Research projected Biden as the winner of the Democratic primary in New Hampshire.
However, there were also warning signs for Biden from the exit polls. Over two-thirds of Republican primary voters rated the economy as either poor or not good—a topic where Biden has struggled to highlight his administration’s achievements.
Compared to the 2016 Republican primary in New Hampshire, a smaller percentage of voters identified themselves as Republicans this time. The share of Republicans decreased from 55% to 47%, while the proportion of Democrats increased from 3% to 8%. Independents remained relatively unchanged at 45%.
Biden did not appear on the New Hampshire Democratic primary ballot, as he supported his party’s decision to hold their primary election in the more diverse state of South Carolina.
Biden’s supporters in New Hampshire were still able to write his name on the ballot, providing an indication of his political strength.
In a speech in Virginia, Biden criticized Republicans for their attempts to limit abortion rights, but his remarks faced repeated interruptions from hecklers protesting his policies on Israel.
In 2022, the US Supreme Court, featuring a conservative majority shaped by three justices appointed under Trump, eliminated the nationwide right to abortion, prompting Democratic voters’ increased activism during the subsequent congressional elections.
Biden has repeatedly portrayed Trump as a potential dictator and a threat to democracy.
Trump, currently juggling campaign stops and court appearances related to various criminal and civil cases, denies any wrongdoing. He employs the criminal charges against him to bolster his claims of political persecution.
Earlier on Tuesday, Trump expressed his confidence in victory in New Hampshire, citing the remarkable level of enthusiasm. Later, during a visit to a polling station in Londonderry, Trump briefly addressed his supporters: So excited. I’m very confident, he remarked.
While New Hampshire shares similarities with Iowa—a predominantly white state with a small population—it possesses a more moderate Republican electorate and has a better track record of predicting the eventual nominee.
As the election drew near, Haley stepped up her attacks on Trump, criticizing his cozy relationships with strongmen like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un.
Haley, 52, also questioned Trump’s age—77—and mental acuity. She had previously leveled similar criticisms at Biden, who is 81.
On Tuesday, she reiterated this theme by highlighting the need for a president who can serve for eight years to get the country back on track. Do you want two 80-year-olds running for president? Haley questioned.
In conclusion, Donald Trump’s victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary confirms his position as the party’s frontrunner. Despite some underlying vulnerabilities, both Trump and Biden are gearing up for a potential rematch in the November election. The results of the New Hampshire primary have set the stage for the upcoming challenges in South Carolina and Super Tuesday, where the candidates will extensively compete for delegates and try to gain momentum in their bid for the presidency.
