The former president and current Republican front-runner, Donald Trump, is facing legal hurdles that could significantly impact his chances of securing the party’s nomination for the November 2024 presidential election. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, around half of Republicans would refrain from voting for Trump if he were convicted of a felony. This poses a grave risk to his political ambitions as he faces federal charges for allegedly leading a conspiracy to overturn his loss in the 2020 election.
Trump is scheduled to appear in court on Thursday to confront these charges. In addition to the election-related conspiracy case, he has been charged in two other criminal proceedings. One case takes place in a New York state court and centers around hush money payments to an adult film actress. The other case is being heard in federal court, where Trump is accused of unlawfully retaining sensitive and classified national security documents after leaving office in January 2021.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll, which was conducted over a span of two days, asked respondents whether they would support Trump for president in 2024 if he were convicted of a felony crime by a jury. The results indicated that 45% of Republicans would not vote for him, while only 35% stated they would. The remainder of respondents expressed uncertainty. Similarly, when asked if they would vote for Trump if he were currently serving time in prison, 52% of Republicans stated they would not, compared to 28% who claimed they would.
It is worth noting that Trump staunchly maintains his innocence in all the cases brought against him and accuses prosecutors of engaging in a politically motivated witch hunt aimed at derailing his campaign. However, the cases against Trump were initiated by the U.S. Department of Justice, an entity that ultimately answers to his Democratic rival, President Joe Biden. The Department has made efforts to ensure that the investigations proceed without political influence. Furthermore, the New York state case is being led by an elected Democrat prosecutor.
The poll revealed that a significant majority of Republicans, 75%, share Trump’s belief that the charges against him are politically motivated. Only 20% disagreed with this sentiment, and the remainder remained uncertain. Moreover, almost two-thirds of Republicans, 66%, found the latest indictment against Trump, in which he is accused of soliciting election fraud, to be not believable. In contrast, 29% perceived the accusation as credible, and the rest expressed uncertainty.
Interestingly, when asked about voting for an unnamed convicted felon versus voting for Trump, Republican respondents indicated they were more likely to withhold their vote from the former, with 71% stating they would not support a convict. In comparison, 52% claimed they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted.
Despite these legal troubles, Trump has managed to capitalize on his indictments, thereby strengthening his lead in the Republican nomination race. As of July, he held onto 47% of Republican support, while his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, saw his support slip by six percentage points to 13%, according to the poll.
This nationwide Reuters/Ipsos poll collected online responses from 1,005 U.S. adults and had a credibility interval of about four percentage points.
