Trump Pulls Ahead of Biden in Key Battleground States for 2024 Elections, New Polls Show
As the 2024 presidential election looms closer, former US President Donald Trump has emerged as the leading candidate in crucial battleground states, according to recent polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. These polls reveal that Trump is currently ahead of US President Joe Biden in five out of the six most critical states in terms of electoral significance.
In key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, Trump holds a four to ten percentage point lead over Biden among registered voters, as reported by The New York Times. Surprisingly, Biden only maintains a two percentage point advantage in Wisconsin, the only state where he appears to be ahead.
The results of the polls indicate that Biden is trailing behind Trump by an average of four points across these six battleground states, all of which he successfully carried in the 2020 election. It is noteworthy that many voters feel that Biden’s policies have negatively impacted them on a personal level. This sentiment is reflected by the fact that two-thirds of respondents believe that the United States is currently moving in the wrong direction.
Furthermore, the coalition of multiracial and multigenerational voters that played a crucial role in Biden’s victory in 2020 seems to be unraveling. Key demographic groups that overwhelmingly supported Biden in the previous election are now much more closely contested. The dissatisfaction with the direction of the country is influencing voters aged below 30, with Biden holding only a slight one-point lead among this group. Moreover, his advantage among Hispanic voters has dwindled to single digits, and Trump now enjoys twice the support among men compared to Biden.
Trump’s lead in the battleground states is significant, with a six-point advantage in Nevada and Georgia, and a five-point advantage in Arizona and Michigan. In Pennsylvania, his lead stands at four points. Conversely, Biden maintains a two-point lead in Wisconsin, the only state where he still holds an edge.
Interestingly, both Biden and Trump face considerable unpopularity, according to the polls. Some voters who previously supported Biden, such as Spencer Weiss, a 53-year-old electrical substation specialist from Bloomsburg, now find themselves leaning towards Trump due to concerns about Biden’s leadership qualities. While Weiss acknowledges reservations, he believes that Trump exhibits more astuteness.
The polls also project a challenging start for Biden in the coming year and suggest that Trump, despite facing criminal charges and a potential trial in 2024, could secure over 300 electoral college votes if the current poll results hold true in the next election.
Across all income levels, voters express dissatisfaction with how Biden’s policies have personally affected them, contrasting with their positive view of Trump’s policies. In fact, voters perceive that Trump has helped them by a significant 17-point margin, while Biden faces an 18-point disadvantage in this regard.
Additionally, the polls reveal concerns about Biden’s age and mental sharpness. An overwhelming 71 percent of voters believe that Biden is too old to effectively serve as president, including 54 percent of his own supporters. In contrast, just 19 percent of Trump’s supporters consider him too old. Voters also trust Trump more than Biden when it comes to the economy, immigration, national security, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, Biden has a nine-point advantage over Trump on the topic of abortion.
The New York Times/Siena College polls surveyed 3,662 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from October 22 to November 3, 2023.
In conclusion, these recent polls indicate a shifting political landscape, with Trump currently ahead of Biden in key battleground states for the 2024 presidential elections. Biden’s policies are facing criticism, and concerns about his age and mental sharpness persist. While the polls project a challenging start for Biden next year, the ultimate outcome of the 2024 elections remains uncertain.
