Chennai, July 1 – Last month, the price of tomatoes skyrocketed, causing distress for consumers. However, there is good news on the horizon. With the start of the July-November crop season, experts predict that tomato prices may soon start to come down.
According to Dipanwita Mazumdar, an economist at Bank of Baroda, the average retail price of tomatoes increased by 38.5% in June. Wholesale prices also rose by 45.3% during the same period. These steep price hikes can be attributed to lower production levels.
Data shows that tomato production has declined by 0.4% from 20,694 (‘000 MT) in the previous season to 20,621 (‘000 MT) in the current season. The first advance estimates for 2022-23 revealed that states like Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Chhattisgarh have experienced a significant drop in production, ranging from 20% to 23.9%.
The primary tomato-producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Odisha account for more than half of the total tomato production. The decrease in production in these states has had a notable impact on prices.
The current increase in tomato prices can be attributed to the seasonal pattern of tomato availability. The Rabi harvest season, which lasts from December to June, can be hampered by factors such as heatwaves and erratic rainfall, leading to price spikes. However, experts predict that the arrival of the July-November crop season will help alleviate the price surge.
It is important to note that the cycles of price increase in tomatoes are generally short-lived, usually lasting around 4-5 months. The arrival of the fresh crop in the upcoming crop season is expected to reverse the current upward trend in prices.
The sudden price shock in tomatoes has also resulted in an increase in vegetable inflation. However, it is anticipated that with the availability of tomatoes from the new crop, inflationary pressures will ease.
The Bank of Baroda report suggests that the tomato price hike is a temporary phenomenon, driven by seasonal fluctuations and changes in production levels. Consumers can look forward to more affordable tomato prices in the coming months.
In conclusion, while tomato prices have surged due to lower production levels, the arrival of the July-November crop season is expected to bring relief to consumers. The decrease in tomato prices is a cyclical pattern, and experts believe that the current price surge will soon be reversed. With the start of the new crop season, consumers can expect to see more affordable tomato prices in the near future.
