Taiwan’s upcoming election on January 13 is expected to test the United States’ aim to stabilize its relationship with China. Regardless of the outcome, the election will likely escalate tensions with China or raise concerns about Taiwan’s defense policies. The Biden administration is striving to maintain a stable connection with China, but Taiwan’s election represents an unpredictable factor in these efforts.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has depicted the island’s elections as a choice between war and peace. It warns that any push for Taiwan’s formal independence will lead to conflict. However, Taiwan’s government rejects China’s sovereignty claim. The United States, cautious not to intervene or influence Taiwan’s democratic process, has emphasized that it is not involved and will not be involved in the elections. Officials hope that the process remains free from any intimidation, coercion, or interference.
In the past, maintaining this detachment has been challenging. The Obama administration faced criticism before Taiwan’s 2012 election when a senior US official expressed doubts about then-presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s ability to maintain a stable relationship with China. Tsai, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), lost that year but went on to win the presidency in 2016 and 2020. Tensions with China have since escalated, raising fears of potential military action.
Although term limits prevent Tsai from running again, China has labeled the current Vice President and DPP candidate, Lai Ching-te, as a separatist. Analysts anticipate increased military pressure from China if Lai emerges as the winner. Both the DPP and the largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), claim that only they can ensure peace and have promised to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses. They both assert that the future of Taiwan should be decided by its people, although the KMT strongly opposes independence.
While the United States also opposes Taiwan’s independence, there are concerns that a victory for the KMT’s candidate, Hou Yu-ih, could undermine US efforts to enhance Taiwan’s military deterrence. The KMT traditionally favors closer ties with China but denies being pro-Beijing. Some analysts argue that US policy statements on China reflect a preference for the DPP, despite officials claiming neutrality.
US officials anticipate increased Chinese pressure on Taiwan, regardless of the election outcome, in areas such as the military, economy, and diplomacy. Maintaining peace, stability, and the status quo is seen as vital during this period of heightened tensions. The United States encourages Taiwan to invest in cost-effective, mobile, and resilient military assets to deter potential Chinese military action.
US congressional support for Taiwan is strong, but any pause or reversal of Taiwan’s commitment to improving its self-defense capabilities could weaken this support. Concerns may arise in Washington over defense policy paralysis if there is a split between a new Taiwan administration and parliamentary control.
The outcome of Taiwan’s election will have significant implications for US-China relations, and Washington emphasizes the importance of continuity in key policy areas, including defense and maintaining the cross-Strait status quo. Diplomacy, clear communication channels, and a commitment to peace and stability will be crucial moving forward.
With tensions escalating in other parts of the world and the United States dealing with internal debates about its future direction, maintaining the status quo may be preferable to some in Washington. However, there are differing views on which candidate would best serve US interests, highlighting the complexity of the situation. In conclusion, the Taiwan election poses an early test for the Biden administration’s goal of stabilizing US-China relations, with tensions high and the future of Taiwan’s relationship with China uncertain.
