Surprising Increase in US Corn Acreage Boosts Harvest Hopes Near Record Levels
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 12 – The US corn harvest hopes have been given a significant boost as the acreage of corn has unexpectedly increased, according to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Despite weaker yields, the increase in harvested corn area has maintained hopes of a near-record harvest level.
Following a review of acreage registration data collected by the USDA’s Farm Service Agency, the USDA increased the harvested corn area by 774,000 acres. This adjustment exceeded expectations, with the average trade guess anticipating a 120,000-acre increase. The acreage tweak has solidified a 10-year high in corn plantings, reaching 94.9 million acres.
The increase in corn plantings has slightly boosted corn output to 15.134 billion bushels. This figure is just above the highest trade guess and offsets the expected decline in yield from 175.1 bushels per acre in August to 173.8 bushels per acre in September.
The surprising increase in corn acreage is the largest ever recorded back to at least the mid-1990s. Previous substantial rises include around 700,000 acres in 2007 and 600,000 acres in 2021. If the current area holds, it would mark the second-largest planted area increase in over four decades.
The reasons behind the USDA’s June area survey’s underestimation of corn plantings this year remain unclear. While USDA survey response rates have declined over the years, potentially impacting the quality of estimates, the rate for June’s survey was similar to the previous year.
USDA’s fall area review is not the only instance of underestimation. The March planting survey and June corn acres both exceeded trade estimates by over a million acres. However, final corn planted acres in 2021 were slightly lower than the September estimate, leaving room for potential growth this year.
In contrast, soybean acres did not see a significant increase in Tuesday’s report. The harvested soybean acres were only 95,000 acres higher than in June, falling short of analyst expectations. The trade has consistently overestimated soybean plantings throughout the year, including a 4-million-acre miss in June.
Analysts had expected a larger increase in harvested soybean acres compared to corn. However, the report demonstrates the unpredictability of agricultural forecasts and emphasizes the importance of considering various perspectives.
Overall, the unexpected increase in US corn acreage offers hope for a near-record harvest despite weaker yields. The report highlights the significance of monitoring agricultural indicators and the potential for fluctuations in production forecasts. farmers and agricultural stakeholders will closely monitor the progress of the corn harvest in the coming weeks, as the industry anticipates a bountiful season.
