The recent resignation of a Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) leader from Nitish Kumar’s cabinet in Bihar has triggered speculation over the state of the Mahagathbandhan parties. Santosh Kumar Suman, the SC/ST minister in the Nitish government, resigned from his position but stated that he is still a part of the Mahagathbandhan government, despite pressure from JDU to merge HAM with their party. With the exit of some of the top leaders from JD-U, perceptions have been raised that the party is the ‘achilles heel’ in Mahagathbandhan.
Earlier, RCP Singh and Upendra Kushwaha had already left the JD-U, when the party had a seat sharing arrangement with BJP. HAM and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) got seven and 11 seats respectively from the JD-U and BJP quotas. In the 2020 elections, HAM and VIP both managed to win four seats each, while JD-U and BJP won 43 and 74 seats respectively, forming the government in the state.
However, the situation changed in August 2022 when Nitish Kumar left the NDA and formed the government with the Mahagathbandhan. The current government comprises JD-U with 45 seats, RJD with 79, Congress with 19, and CPI-ML, CPI, CPI-M with 12, 2, and 2 seats respectively, as well as one independent MLA. BJP, on the other hand, has 78 MLAs, while AIMIM has one.
If HAM withdraws its support from the Mahagathbandhan, it would not affect Nitish Kumar’s government much, as it still has 160 MLAs, which is well beyond the magical figure of 122. However, if Jitan Ram Manjhi, who belongs to the Mahadalit community, and has a sizable vote bank of around five per cent in the state, joins hands with NDA, it would be a significant jolt to Nitish Kumar.
Upendra Kushwaha, a prominent leader of the Kushwaha community, has also formed the new political party Rashtriya Lok Janata Dal (RLJD) and is currently in touch with BJP. With the uncertainty surrounding Mahagathbandhan parties being compounded by the recent resignations from JD-U, the political landscape in Bihar remains in flux.
