Anti-government Protest in Belgrade: Moscow’s Planned Influence Operation?
Protests have erupted in Belgrade following the parliamentary elections in Serbia, with allegations of fraud, bribery, and election result manipulation aimed at President Aleksandar Vucic and the ruling party. The opposition coalition, ‘Serbia against violence,’ has taken to the streets to denounce the documented violations during the recent elections. The unrest escalated on December 24 when protesters surrounded the municipal city hall in Belgrade, vandalizing property in an attempt to gain entry.
The ‘Serbia against violence’ coalition was formed in response to tragic events that took place in May 2023, specifically the Belgrade elementary school and Mladenovac and Smederevo mass shootings.
In response to the protests, Belgrade has decided to hold a re-run at 30 polling stations on December 30.
Concerns have been raised about potential foreign involvement, specifically from Moscow. Amid the unrest, the Russian Ambassador to Serbia, Bocan-Harchenko, held a meeting with President Vucic, during which he handed over data from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) outlining possible future unrest involving Western entities. This meeting has raised suspicions of a Kremlin-orchestrated influence campaign targeting the leadership in Belgrade.
Interestingly, during protests in Novi Pazar, demonstrators were seen expressing support for the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and its leader, Hashim Thaci. This support is highly implausible, as the mention of the KLA and Thaci is known to elicit hostility from the Serbs due to Thaci’s pending trial at The Hague. The fact that these elements were present in the protests could be used as potential evidence accusing the Vucic government of organizing the unrest with the involvement of third parties. Therefore, it is highly probable that Russian intelligence played a role in this Serbian unrest.
Several factors contribute to this alleged operation:
1. The presence of the Nis Wagner group center, which could serve as a base for supporting influence activities within Serbia.
2. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) providing information to the Vucic government, a step directly planned and controlled by Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Russian Security Council. In Russia, the FSB is responsible for organizing anti-opposition activities. The Russians intentionally exaggerated the threat of a color revolution in Serbia to intimidate the Vucic regime, despite the lack of confirmed information about a potential coup. The government’s lack of special measures, including military deployment, signifies its complete control of the situation. It raises suspicions that the protests may be a joint operation between Russia and Vucic to divert attention from election fraud and create a pretext for military operations in the region while targeting the opposition through the lens of Russian influence.
This alleged operation serves several Kremlin objectives:
1. Encouraging Vucic to provide military assistance in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
2. Accusing Pristina of involvement in the unrest and provoking a violent response from the Serbian population. This could potentially spark a conflict in the Balkans, diverting Europe’s attention away from the war in Ukraine.
3. Establishing grounds for a military operation against Kosovo, which Russia has been preparing for over the past two years. Moscow could use Western support for Kosovo as evidence to reinforce its propaganda and disinformation narrative, arguing that its military intervention in Ukraine was provoked by the West.
It is expected that representatives of the Serbian government, including Aleksandar Vulin, the director of the Security Intelligence Agency, may accuse Kosovo of involvement in organizing the unrest, allegedly with the support of the West. This scenario is indirectly acknowledged by the head of the Kosovo government, Albin Kurti, who claims that armed individuals with support from Serbian security services are planning new attacks within his country.
The protests in Belgrade have shed light on potential foreign interference and the complex geopolitical dynamics unfolding in the Balkans. While the situation continues to evolve, it is crucial to analyze it with a discerning eye and consider the interests and needs of all parties involved.
