Scientists at the Cyprus Institute (CyI) have developed an early warning system to assess the threat posed by tiger mosquitoes, which can transmit dengue fever. This system, called VEClim, is a digital online platform that predicts the activity of these mosquitoes throughout the year in Cyprus.
According to CyI scientists, the risk of local disease transmission is low during the winter months, with the projected impact of a potential outbreak affecting fewer than 10 individuals.
The Asian tiger mosquito is known for its invasive nature and has been spreading across Europe since the late 1970s. It is a carrier of various viruses, including dengue, and has caused outbreaks of dengue fever in countries such as Croatia, France, Spain, and Italy since 2010.
Researchers at CyI were among the first to document the arrival of the tiger mosquito in Limassol in 2022. This raised concerns about the potential spread of pathogens by the mosquitoes.
In response, the health ministry implemented intensive vector control measures in affected areas across the island. So far, only isolated cases of dengue fever have been reported, which were attributed to travelers who contracted the virus elsewhere.
VEClim, the online platform, provided recent assessments of the potential risks and impacts of a disease outbreak if a permanent tiger mosquito population were to establish itself in Limassol.
Based on weather forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the risk of an outbreak is lowest between late November and early March. During this period, the projected number of infections in an outbreak is expected to be fewer than 10, assuming local transmission occurs, which is unlikely given that tiger mosquito populations have not established themselves on the island.
The potential for an outbreak depends on factors such as the mosquito’s sensitivity to climate and environmental conditions. Temperature, rainfall, and human activities, such as leaving containers uncovered, can influence the mosquito’s ability to transmit imported viruses within the local population.
VEClim provides insights into seasonal activity patterns and short-term forecasts of tiger mosquito abundance and activity across Europe. The platform aims to expand its capabilities by including long-term climate change projections, region-specific assessments for vector control, and incorporating other vector species such as sand flies, yellow fever mosquitoes, and common house mosquitoes, which carry diseases like leishmaniasis and the West Nile virus.
The introduction of this early warning system is a significant development in managing the risk of dengue fever in Cyprus. By monitoring tiger mosquito activity and assessing the potential for disease transmission, authorities can take proactive measures to prevent and control outbreaks. As the world continues to face the challenges of emerging diseases, advancements like VEClim play a crucial role in safeguarding public health.
With ongoing research and technological innovations, the fight against mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever is becoming more comprehensive and targeted. By understanding the factors that influence mosquito populations and their ability to transmit diseases, scientists and health professionals can develop strategies to mitigate the impact of these pests.
In the case of Cyprus, the early detection and monitoring of tiger mosquitoes through VEClim provide valuable information for public health authorities, enabling them to respond effectively in the event of a potential outbreak. Through continued collaboration between researchers, policymakers, and communities, we can work towards a future where diseases carried by mosquitoes are minimized, and the well-being of individuals and communities is protected.
