RSV Vaccine Sales Expected to Surpass $10 Billion by 2030 in G7 Countries; GSK Anticipated to Dominate Market
A report from London-based health analytics firm Airfinity has predicted that sales of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines for older adults in G7 countries could exceed $10 billion by 2030. RSV has been a long-standing medical challenge, but vaccines developed by GSK and Pfizer have finally provided a solution. RSV primarily affects the lungs and respiratory tract, causing a significant number of hospitalizations and deaths among older adults in the U.S. each year.
In May, GSK received authorization from the U.S. FDA for its RSV vaccine called Arexvy, which was developed in collaboration with U.S. biotech company Agenus. Shortly thereafter, Pfizer gained approval for its own RSV vaccine, Abrysvo, targeting the same age group. Arexvy has already been cleared by the European Union (EU), while Pfizer’s vaccine is expected to receive approval in the region after receiving an endorsement from an expert panel of the EU drug regulator.
Both vaccines are recombinant shots specifically designed to prevent lower respiratory tract disease caused by RSV in individuals aged 60 years and older. With the CDC’s clearance for the vaccination of eligible older adults in consultation with healthcare providers, GSK and Pfizer are preparing for the first-ever U.S. RSV vaccine rollout scheduled for the 2023-24 immunization drive.
Airfinity estimates that GSK and Pfizer could generate $900 million in RSV vaccine sales to older adults in G7 countries this year. According to the report, GSK is expected to dominate the RSV vaccine market in 2023 with $500 million in sales, representing a 56% market share for Arexvy. Pfizer is anticipated to account for the remaining market share with $400 million in sales for Abrysvo. Other companies such as Icosavax Inc. are also developing RSV vaccines.
The report suggests that while RSV vaccine sales could reach $10.5 billion by the end of 2030, they may plateau thereafter. Among G7 nations, the U.S. is projected to contribute the largest share, accounting for 45% of RSV vaccine sales. Airfinity’s projections indicate that Japan, despite starting its RSV program late, is likely to dominate the market within three years of the vaccine rollout, which is expected to take place no earlier than 2026.
According to Health Economist Salvini Datta from Airfinity, Country-level vaccine rollout and uptake won’t happen overnight, and our modeling estimates coverage will grow over the next seven years before plateauing. Datta also added that GSK, Pfizer, and Moderna’s vaccines are expected to dominate the market until potential combination shots targeting COVID-19, flu, and RSV receive approval.
Due to its higher efficacy and being the first RSV vaccine authorized in the U.S., U.K., and EU, GSK’s Arexvy is anticipated to lead the market throughout the decade, closely followed by Moderna and Pfizer. Airfinity projects that by 2030, Arexvy will generate annual sales of $3.7 billion, with estimated sales of $3.6 billion for Moderna’s mRNA-1345 and $3.1 billion for Pfizer’s Abrysvo.
In conclusion, the RSV vaccine market is expected to witness significant growth in the coming years, with GSK projected as the dominant player. The U.S. is likely to account for the largest market share, while Japan is expected to gain prominence shortly after the vaccine rollout. The development of combination shots targeting multiple viruses, including RSV, holds promise for the future of RSV prevention.
