Putin’s Confidence Grows as Ukraine War Enters Second Winter
As the conflict in Ukraine enters its second winter, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s confidence in his military’s ability to outlast Ukraine is growing. With the attention of Kyiv’s US and European allies diverted by the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East, the Kremlin believes that the tide is turning in Russia’s favor. Putin aims to maintain the territories in southern and eastern Ukraine that Russian forces seized during the invasion, using the time until his upcoming presidential elections in March to secure and consolidate these gains. By prolonging the war and betting on war fatigue setting in among the US and Europe, Putin hopes to shift pressure onto Ukraine to seek a settlement.
Despite the ongoing support pledged by Western allies to Ukraine, the situation remains challenging. The US recently removed funding for Ukraine during a political wrangle over short-term spending, while the election of Slovakia’s President Robert Fico, who is sympathetic to Russia, highlights the growing challenges facing the European Union. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s meeting with Putin in Beijing has further raised concerns among NATO allies about the unity of support for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, fierce fighting continues in eastern and northeastern Ukraine, with Russian forces launching attacks near Avdiivka in the Donetsk region and Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region. Russian military blogger reports suggest that Ukrainian troops have attempted to regain control of occupied settlements in the southern Kherson region. The Russian defense ministry claims to have repelled the Ukrainian forces. Despite these developments, Ukraine remains committed to its counteroffensive and aims to continue making progress on the battlefield, even as the weather deteriorates during winter.
While Russia may achieve some tactical-level successes, analysts believe that these are unlikely to translate into significant strategic gains. Many in the Russian elite remain pessimistic about the overall prospects of the war and see no viable solution to end the conflict.
In the midst of the escalating crisis between Israel and Gaza, the US and NATO allies affirm their commitment to providing weapons and assistance to Ukraine. President Joe Biden, in an Oval Office address, urged the American people to support funding for Israel and Ukraine’s war efforts, emphasizing the threats posed by Hamas and Putin to US democracy. The White House is submitting a funding request of $61.4 billion to Congress for aid to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude to Biden for providing long-range ATACMS missiles that were used to strike Russian-occupied airfields behind the front line.
However, Zelensky also expressed concerns that international attention may turn away from Ukraine due to the violence in Israel and Gaza. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov believes that Russia’s goals in the conflict will be achieved faster if the US shifts its focus to the Middle East and reduces arms deliveries to Kyiv.
In conclusion, as Ukraine faces a second winter of war, Putin’s confidence in Russia’s military superiority is strengthening. While the conflict in the Middle East diverts attention from Ukraine, Putin aims to consolidate Russia’s territorial gains and prolong the war in hopes of securing a more favorable settlement for Russia. The ongoing support from Western allies is crucial for Ukraine, but challenges and concerns loom. The situation on the ground remains volatile, with both sides engaged in fierce fighting. It remains to be seen how the conflict will unfold in the coming months and whether a resolution can be reached.
