Polls Close for Taiwan Presidential Election Today
Polls are set to close at 7 pm AEDT today for Taiwan’s highly anticipated presidential election. This election sees the use of the first past the post system, with three candidates vying for the position of president. The candidates include William Lai of the center-left and pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou You-ih of the more pro-China and conservative Kuomintang (KMT), and Ko Wen-je of the populist Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
The incumbent president, Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP, who has held the presidency since 2016, cannot run for a third term due to term limits. Prior to nominations closing on November 24, there were speculations that the KMT and TPP would form a joint ticket, but this plan fell through.
Since January 3, publication of polls has been prohibited. However, the final polls released before this date indicated that William Lai was leading Hou You-ih by two to five points, with one poll even showing Lai with an 11-point lead. In the polls, Ko Wen-je’s support was in the low 20s. If Lai emerges as the winner, it would mark the first time that the same party has won the presidency for three consecutive terms. Moreover, this election is likely to break the trend of the winning candidate securing a majority of the votes, a first since 2000.
In other international election news, the first US presidential nominating contest is fast approaching, with the Iowa Republican caucus scheduled for Monday. The latest aggregate of Iowa polls by FiveThirtyEight shows Donald Trump in the lead with 51.3%, followed by Nikki Haley at 17.3% and Ron DeSantis at 16.1%. The New Hampshire primary will follow Iowa on January 23, where Trump is currently leading with 41.4%, followed by Haley at 30.0% and DeSantis at 6.1%.
Looking ahead, Super Tuesday on March 5 will mark a crucial date in the US presidential race, with many states voting and both Trump and Joe Biden likely to come closer to securing their respective party nominations. Notably, no prominent Democrat has challenged Biden for the Democratic nomination.
Shifting our focus to upcoming by-elections, on February 13, a by-election will be held in New York’s third federal House seat, previously held by Republican George Santos. Santos was expelled from the House on December 1 by a 311-114 vote, as he faced 23 indictments. In the last election, Santos had won the seat by a margin of 53.8-46.2, but Daily Kos elections reports that Biden took this seat by an 8.2% margin in 2020. A poll conducted in late November showed the Democrat leading by three points.
In terms of party dynamics and historical trends, the non-presidential party tends to perform well in most midterm elections. While Democrats managed to maintain a federal House majority of 222-213 in 2022, with a Republican gain of nine seats compared to 2020, they did lose four seats in New York.
As of now, Republicans hold a 220-213 House majority following the resignation of former Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy on December 31. Since McCarthy’s seat is considered safe for Republicans, the upcoming by-election is unlikely to be a competitive race. However, if a Democrat were to win in New York’s third seat, the Republican majority would narrow to 220-214 until McCarthy’s seat is filled.
Shifting our attention across the Atlantic, the UK will also see two by-elections on February 15. These include the Conservative-held seats of Wellingborough and Kingswood. Wellingborough MP Peter Bone was recalled after a parliamentary suspension, while Kingswood MP Chris Skidmore resigned in protest against more oil and gas licenses. In the 2019 elections, Peter Bone secured a victory in Wellingborough with a significant margin of 62.2-26.5 against Labour, with 7.9% of the vote going to the Liberal Democrats. Chris Skidmore similarly won in Kingswood with a 56.2-33.4 lead over Labour, with the support of 6.9% of the electorate going to the Liberal Democrats. Although the Conservatives have lost some traditionally safe seats in recent by-elections, the outcome in these two constituencies remains to be seen.
As the day progresses, all eyes will be on Taiwan as the polls close for the presidential election. The results will shape the country’s political landscape for the next term, while international observers eagerly await the outcomes of the US and UK by-elections, which will provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of both countries’ political arenas.
