Property Tax Ballot Measure Proposed by Gov. Polis Faces Uncertain Fate, Poll Shows
A recent poll has revealed that the property tax measure referred to voters by Colorado Governor Jared Polis and his Democratic allies in the General Assembly hangs in the balance. The survey conducted by Magellan Strategies indicates that public opinion on Proposition HH is split, with support dropping and opposition increasing when voters learn more about the measure.
While the language used in Proposition HH is relatively straightforward, its approval could have widespread implications for local governments, school districts, property owners, and taxpayers throughout Colorado. Magellan Strategies concluded that assuming voters are well-informed about the state and local policy changes that would follow the passage of Prop HH, the outcome of the ballot measure in November is too close to call.
However, the survey seemed to oversample homeowners, who would benefit from Prop HH’s property tax changes. Of the respondents, 77% identified as homeowners, while only 19% identified as renters, which is about half the current rental rate estimated by the Bell Policy Center.
Democratic lawmakers passed Senate Bill 303, which includes Proposition HH, on the final day of the 2023 legislative session. The ballot question, set to be voted on in November, seeks permission from voters to raise the Referendum C cap by 1% and retain the additional revenue for a ten-year period. This 1% increase would generate approximately $167 million per year, which would be used to support local governments and boost funding for K-12 education. A companion measure, outlined in House Bill 1311, promises an equalized TABOR refund to taxpayers if Proposition HH passes, providing single filers with $873 and joint filers with $1,746 next year, based on the governor’s Office of State Planning and Budgeting projections.
Critics argue that the measure’s proposal to increase the cap by 1% each year for the next nine years allows the government to retain and spend a greater amount on property tax relief, thereby reducing TABOR refunds.
If approved, Proposition HH would introduce a temporary assessment rate reduction for residential properties and decrease valuations (and associated property taxes) for owner-occupied, senior, and multi-family housing by $50,000 in 2023 and by $40,000 from 2024 to 2032.
If voters reject the measure, the TABOR refund in 2024 would be based on the state’s existing six-tier refund mechanism, which is determined by income levels.
The poll revealed that only a small percentage of likely voters, around 10%, are highly knowledgeable about Prop HH. Approximately 25% are somewhat familiar with the measure, while a significant 41% know nothing about it.
When looking at the poll’s results for uninformed questions, support for Prop HH stands at 54%, with opposition at 34% and 12% undecided. Democrats showed the highest support at 67%, while women, seniors, and homeowners voiced approval at 60%, 59%, and 55% respectively. Republicans expressed the most opposition, with 44% rejecting the measure, while disapproval among men stood at 42%.
However, when respondents were educated about the effects of Prop HH on state and local policy changes before reading the ballot language, the results showed a significant shift. Support declined by 11%, dropping from 54% to 43%, with opposition increasing by 12% from 34% to 46%.
Despite attempts to make Prop HH more appealing, such as highlighting the increase in senior property tax exemption or the inclusion of an equalized TABOR refund, the survey indicated that respondents were less likely to support the measure upon learning about its effects on local governments. The poll showed that 45% opposed Prop HH based on these effects, while only 38% were in favor.
Respondents were evenly divided when considering the measure’s impact on property tax increases.
It is worth noting that 91% of the respondents stated their intention to vote in November.
The poll also asked likely voters about their reasons for supporting or rejecting Proposition HH. Many cited reduced property taxes as an appealing factor. However, those who rejected the measure criticized it as a deceptive move by the state government, drawing parallels to past instances where the Colorado electorate was misled.
In conclusion, the poll conducted by Magellan Strategies highlights the evolving opinions surrounding Proposition HH. As voters become more informed about the measure and its potential impacts, support for Prop HH decreases, even among key demographics such as seniors and homeowners. The fate of the property tax ballot measure remains uncertain, with Coloradans set to decide its future in November.
