New Zealand is currently grappling with a dominant variant of the Covid-19 virus, known as JN.1, which has become the driving force behind the country’s latest surge in infections. Recent data from ESR’s surveillance has revealed that the JN.1 variant accounted for a staggering 93 percent of coronavirus detected through wastewater sampling. Additionally, this variant made up three-quarters of sequenced samples from hospitals.
The emergence and rapid spread of the JN.1 variant marks a significant shift in the pattern of Covid-19 cases in New Zealand. For the past year and a half, cases have largely been caused by a mixture of Omicron sub-variants circulating together, creating what experts describe as a soup of variants. However, JN.1’s dominance has disrupted this trend, becoming the first single variant to cause such a substantial impact since the Omicron offshoot BA.5 triggered a mid-winter wave in mid-2022.
JN.1 was first detected in New Zealand in October, initially accounting for approximately 10 percent of cases. By December, it had risen to at least half of all cases and became the driving sub-variant in the country’s summer surge. The rise of JN.1 has been attributed to its mutation from a similar Omicron strain, BA.2.86, with the spike protein being the distinguishing factor between the two variants.
Despite JN.1’s prevalence, experts emphasize that it has not caused the same level of severe illness as previous variants. Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank explains that this difference can be partly attributed to the fact that more people have been exposed to the virus since 2022. Plank notes that although JN.1 has demonstrated growth and immune advantages, it is not resulting in as severe health impacts as the BA.5 variant.
The dominance of the JN.1 variant in New Zealand is not an isolated occurrence. Otago University evolutionary virologist Dr. Jemma Geoghegan reveals that JN.1 is similarly dominant in other parts of the world, indicating that Covid-19 has not settled into a predictable seasonal pattern like other respiratory diseases. Geoghegan emphasizes that these pandemic waves are driven by the continuous evolution of the virus.
Fortunately, there are signs that New Zealand may be past the peak of the wave caused by the JN.1 variant. Surveillance data suggests that Covid-19 infection rates are gradually declining, with fewer hospitalizations and decreasing detections in wastewater samples nationwide. Although the latest Omicron-targeted booster is not yet available in New Zealand, experts assure that the current vaccine remains effective in preventing severe disease.
As the country navigates through this latest surge, Professor Plank suggests that the JN.1 variant could potentially accelerate the decline of the wave, leading to a more rapid decrease in cases. However, it is crucial to continue monitoring the situation and take necessary precautions to prevent further spread and exposure.
The rise of the JN.1 variant serves as a reminder that the Covid-19 pandemic is far from over. With the virus continually evolving, it is essential to remain vigilant and adaptable in order to effectively combat its impact. By understanding the dynamics of these new variants and continuing to prioritize public health measures, New Zealand and the rest of the world can navigate these waves of the pandemic, safeguarding the well-being of communities globally.
