While the newly released Iowa Poll shows U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley surpassing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, it indicated her success in the state would likely come down to voters’ willingness to head to the polls amid bitter-cold temperatures.
A recent survey of Iowa Republican voters ahead of the party’s caucus on Monday shows that Haley has overtaken DeSantis, moving into second place but still trailing former President Donald Trump by double digits, according to a Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom Iowa Poll that was released on Saturday night.
The Iowa Poll shows 48 percent of likely Republican voters are planning to select Trump as their first choice for president.
Since the poll was last conducted in December 2023, support for Haley has jumped from 16 percent to 20 percent, making it her best showing of any Iowa Poll, according to the outlet.
Support for DeSantis has fallen three percentage points to 16 percent, contributing to his dip to third place, according to the Des Moines Register.
However, even as Haley moves up in the ranking, J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll, said her support appears to be on shaky ground, according to the Des Moines Register.
After months of campaigning, the Republican presidential hopefuls will face voters for the first time at the Iowa caucus on Monday as blizzard conditions and sub-zero temperatures continue to blast the state.
Forecasts show record-low temperatures are possible, with the National Weather Service warning that an arctic cold could cause temperatures to drop to negative 15 degrees in some parts of the state shortly before the caucuses begin at 7 p.m.
Selzer told the Register that the Iowa Poll shows Haley’s supporters are unenthusiastic about their choice for president, which would mean they’re less likely to venture out in the bitter cold and snow than people planning to vote for Trump, who polled the highest with favorability.
About 49 percent of voters who plan to caucus for Haley say they are only mildly enthusiastic and 12 percent are not that enthusiastic, the poll shows.
The Register noted that Haley is the only candidate included in the poll to see a spike in the proportion of her supporters who said they are only mildly or not that enthusiastic.
Her enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping, Selzer said. That 61 percent are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up.
Roughly 9 percent said they are extremely enthusiastic to caucus for Haley, who also served as the governor of South Carolina. Another 30 percent said they are enthusiastic, according to the Iowa Poll.
Despite her recent surge in support, Haley may face a challenge in getting her voters to brave the freezing temperatures and participate in the caucuses. While the Iowa Poll suggests that her campaign is gaining momentum, the lack of enthusiasm among her supporters could hinder her success on caucus night.
The icy weather conditions are expected to make it challenging for voters to make their way to the caucuses, potentially impacting turnout and ultimately the outcome of the race.
As the situation unfolds, both Haley and Trump’s representatives have yet to comment on the Iowa Poll’s findings. Will the bitter cold weather dampen Haley’s chances of gaining traction in the state? Only time will tell as Iowan Republicans make their way to the caucuses on Monday amid freezing temperatures.
