New Study Highlights Patterns and Risks of Mass Shootings in the United States
Mass shootings in the United States have long been a cause for concern, with tragic events occurring seemingly at random. However, a recent study conducted by researchers from Iowa State University sheds new light on these incidents. Published in the journal Risk Analysis, the study delves into the patterns and risks associated with mass shootings, providing valuable insights that could aid security professionals in emergency preparedness.
To conduct their analysis, the researchers, Associate Professor Cameron MacKenzie and doctoral student Xue Lei, utilized statistical methods and computer simulations based on a database of mass shootings spanning from 1966 to 2020. This database was provided by the Violence Project, which defines a mass shooting as an incident where four or more victims are killed by a firearm in a public place. Shockingly, the study revealed that the United States has experienced at least one mass shooting every year since 1966, amounting to a staggering 173 incidents during the specified timeframe.
Drawing from their analysis, MacKenzie and Lei developed a probability distribution of annual mass shootings in the country. They then used two models to simulate the expected number of mass shootings in each state, calculating the likelihood of at least one incident occurring within a year. Additionally, the researchers utilized data from the Violence Project to calculate the probability of mass shootings in various public locations such as restaurants, schools, workplaces, and houses of worship.
Notably, the definition of a mass shooting plays a crucial role in determining the probability of such incidents occurring at specific locations. In this study, the Violence Project’s definition was utilized, focusing on incidents in public places. However, other sources, such as the Gun Violence Archive, have a broader definition, including incidents that occur in both public and private locations, as well as targeted shootings. When applying data from the Gun Violence Archive, the models predicted a significantly higher number of annual mass shootings, nearly 100 times greater than the forecast based on the Violence Project’s data. This stark contrast highlights the importance of clarifying how a mass shooting is defined when reporting statistical data.
Regarding the safety of children in schools, MacKenzie emphasized that the probability of a specific student experiencing a mass shooting in a K-12 school is remarkably low. However, he acknowledged that for parents whose children have been affected by a mass shooting, statistical probabilities offer little solace. It is crucial to strike a balance between taking precautions and living in fear, as mass shootings are events with low probability but high consequences.
This groundbreaking study from Iowa State University provides a deeper understanding of the patterns and risks associated with mass shootings in the United States. By quantifying the annual likelihood of such incidents and assessing risks at specific locations, security professionals can better strategize and prepare for potential emergencies. While mass shootings remain a deeply concerning issue, this study serves as a valuable tool in mitigating risks and enhancing public safety.
Reference: Quantifying the risk of mass shootings at specific locations by Xue Lei and Cameron MacKenzie, 22 August 2023, Risk Analysis.
