HELENA, Mont. – Montana Republicans convened in a hotel ballroom over the weekend, eager to rally together and strategize for the upcoming 2024 election. Their primary goal? Defeating three-term incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Jon Tester. However, before the gathering could even begin, conservative Congressman Matt Rosendale made a bold move by entering the race against the wishes of GOP leaders.
This unexpected twist shed light on the deep divisions within the Montana GOP, further complicating the party’s already challenging mission. Taking down Senator Tester is a crucial part of the Republicans’ strategy to gain control of the narrowly divided Senate in the upcoming November election. They are specifically targeting vulnerable Democratic seats in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.
Unfortunately for Republicans, outside observers and even some members within the party believe that the intensifying intraparty rivalry leading up to Montana’s June primary could undermine their hopes of achieving their desired outcome.
Notably, Senate Republican leaders, including Montana Senator Steve Daines, who spearheads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, are throwing their support behind former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy instead of Rosendale. They view Rosendale as too polarizing and fear that he may struggle to appeal to the state’s sizable independent voter base.
Rosendale’s decision to join the Senate contest comes after months of speculation. Having lost to Tester in 2018, the hard-right lawmaker sees this as an opportunity for a rematch and believes that his name recognition and trustworthiness have significantly increased since then.
In a show of grassroots support, a large group of conservative state lawmakers turned out to back Rosendale during his filing process. Their enthusiastic cheers illustrated the significant backing Rosendale enjoys within the state.
Just hours later, Montana Governor Greg Gianforte took to the stage in a Helena hotel ballroom to drum up support for Tim Sheehy, an ex-SEAL and political novice who the Republicans believe represents their best chance of unseating Tester. Gianforte’s speech was interrupted by a buzz of excitement as news spread that former President Donald Trump had endorsed Sheehy in a social media post. Gianforte jokingly credited his convincing speech for the endorsement.
Responding to the setback, Rosendale reaffirmed his loyalty to Trump and expressed his love for the former president. His connection to Trump was instrumental in his previous campaigns and remains a key aspect of his political identity.
Sheehy, a 38-year-old entrepreneur who founded an aerial firefighting company in Belgrade, Montana, believes that his lack of political experience is an advantage. He claims that he hasn’t been contaminated by years in politics and brings a fresh perspective to the table as a small business owner and job creator.
However, some of Rosendale’s supporters worry that Sheehy’s dependence on federal government contracts for his firefighting company presents a significant conflict of interest. Theresa Manzella, a Republican state senator and chairperson of the Montana Freedom Caucus, expressed her concerns, stating, I see a pretty significant conflict when your livelihood is determined by government contracts.
State Representative George Nikolakakos argues that nominating Rosendale would play into the hands of the Democrats. Nikolakakos, a Republican from a swing district in Great Falls, believes that Rosendale, having already lost in 2018, is not the candidate who will resonate with the voters and ultimately secure victory.
While Democratic observers relish the divisions within the Republican Senate race, hoping that it will deplete GOP funds and alienate independent voters, the race has already seen a considerable investment in advertising. Candidates and political groups have spent over $18 million on advertising in the early stages of the Senate campaign. This spending is expected to escalate significantly ahead of the November election, with an additional $95 million in advertising reservations already made.
If this trend continues, the Senate race in Montana is on track to become one of the most expensive political contests in the state’s history. It could rival the 2020 matchup between Senator Daines and then-Governor Steve Bullock, which saw over $118 million in spending.
Montana, once a swing state, has veered sharply to the right in recent years. Consequently, Senator Tester finds himself increasingly vulnerable with each passing election cycle. Trump won Montana by a staggering 16 percentage points in 2016, and Tester is currently the only Democrat holding statewide office in the state.
As the race heats up, the battle for the Montana Senate seat will undoubtedly capture national attention. Republicans must navigate their internal divisions and select a candidate who can mount a convincing challenge to Tester if they hope to achieve their goal of flipping the balance of power in the Senate.
The outcome of this race will not only determine Montana’s political landscape but could also have consequences for the broader political landscape at the national level.
