Monsoon Rainfall in India Expected to Fall Below Normal as El Nino Strengthens
The Indian Meteorological Department has announced that monsoon rainfall activity in India is anticipated to be below normal during the second half of the monsoon season in August. This forecast comes as El Nino conditions intensify. While parts of the country adjacent to the Himalayas and the east central and northeast regions can expect normal to above normal rainfall, southern India as well as northwest and central India are likely to experience below normal rainfall. Some states such as East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Kerala have already encountered deficient rainfall in July.
During a press briefing, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the IMD Chief, stated that the central region of India, combined with parts of Rajasthan, witnessed significant rainfall activity in July. The country as a whole received 315.9 mm of rainfall last month, which was 13% higher than the average. Mohapatra mentioned that with the exception of the east and northeast regions, all other areas had excess rain. Interestingly, the east and northeast regions experienced their third lowest rainfall since records began in 1901, while the northwest region saw its highest rainfall since 2001.
As India braces for below normal monsoon rainfall, concerns arise regarding the potential impact on agriculture, water resources, and overall livelihoods. However, it is worth noting that the southwest monsoon constitutes a major part of the country’s total rainfall, and there are other factors at play besides El Nino that can influence monsoon patterns.
The effects of El Nino, a climate phenomenon characterized by warming of the Pacific Ocean, can be far-reaching. It often disrupts weather patterns globally, causing droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others. The Indian government has been closely monitoring the situation and is prepared to implement contingency plans to address any adverse consequences of poor rainfall.
The announcement by the Indian Meteorological Department serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of weather patterns and the challenges they pose for agrarian economies like India. While the monsoon rainfall forecast may bring concerns, it is important to remember that weather patterns can change, and the monsoon season is inherently variable.
As the situation unfolds, it is crucial for authorities, farmers, and the public to remain vigilant and take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential impacts of inadequate rainfall. While some areas may receive below normal rainfall, there are also regions that have seen above-average rainfall, offering a glimmer of hope for a balanced outcome.
Ultimately, the impact of El Nino and monsoon rainfall on India’s overall agricultural production and economy will become clearer in the coming months. Until then, it is a waiting game as the nation closely watches the skies and hopes for a favorable turn of events.
