Will AI take our jobs? Maybe not just yet
There’s been a lot of speculation about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the workforce. Will robots and machines replace human workers in various industries? A recent study conducted by researchers at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory suggests that the widespread replacement of human labor by AI may not happen as quickly as some fear.
The study, led by Neil Thompson, director of the FutureTech research project, focused on AI applications that use machine vision, the ability of computers to understand visual data such as pictures and video. The researchers examined 420 commercial and industrial tasks where an AI system with machine vision could potentially replace human workers. Surprisingly, they found that AI would lead to lower overall costs in only 23 percent of the cases studied. In most situations, human workers were still more cost-efficient.
One of the key factors considered in the study was the cost of implementing AI systems and redesigning job processes. It was concluded that AI systems must not only be capable of performing tasks traditionally done by humans but also be cost-effective enough to justify the investment. For example, in the case of bakers who spend just 6 percent of their time visually inspecting loaves of bread, the cost of current machine vision systems is too high to make it worthwhile to replace human labor for such a small portion of their duties.
Although the study focused solely on machine vision applications, the researchers acknowledged that the field of AI is advancing rapidly. While AI systems continue to improve and become more affordable, they are likely to become cost-effective for a larger number of jobs in the future.
The study has received support from other academics in the field. Christoph Riedl, an associate professor at Northeastern University, described the findings as absolutely plausible and compared the situation to the introduction of electricity in factories. Initially, the full potential of electricity was not immediately realized, requiring a learning process to maximize its benefits. Similarly, AI systems will require time and adjustment to fully leverage their capabilities.
Joseph Fuller, a professor at Harvard Business School, highlighted the impact of generative AI on certain jobs like computer software programming. While this field is already witnessing a reduction in demand for human programmers due to AI capabilities, other complex tasks, such as manufacturing, are more challenging to automate effectively. Fuller emphasized the difficulty of training AI systems for such intricate processes lacking comprehensive data sets.
It is important to note that the study focused on the current state of AI and machine vision technology. The researchers are also actively exploring the potential impact of the latest generative AI systems, such as ChatGPT. However, evaluating the cost savings and feasibility of replacing human labor with AI for thousands of specific tasks requires extensive research and analysis.
In conclusion, while the potential for AI to replace human jobs exists, the MIT study suggests that it may not happen as rapidly as some predict. Cost-effectiveness, the complexity of tasks, and the ongoing improvement of AI systems are all factors that will shape the future of work. As AI technology continues to evolve, it is crucial to carefully consider its implementation, ensuring that it enhances efficiency and productivity while preserving the value of human labor.
