Britain votes in election that may end 14 years of Conservative rule
LONDON — This is a turn-the-page, night-and-day kind of election for Britain. After 14 years, the Conservative Party may be on the way out, replaced by an energized Labour Party led by former lefty lawyer turned ruthless centrist Keir Starmer.
Campaigning for this surprise snap election lasted just a merciful six weeks. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s campaign has been dogged by gaffes and micro-scandals. Voters appear impatient with Tory promises of a sunlit tomorrow. They are ready for Labour.
The big questions are on whether this will indeed be a historic win for Labour, a historic defeat for the Conservatives, and whether Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party shakes things up.
The flurry of results is expected to shift into the formalities of a government transition on Friday, with King Charles III’s blessing.
Voters in this election say the issues they care most about are the economy and health care. Labour is seen as stronger on both counts. Keir Starmer wants to shore up the British economy and address people’s sense that everyday costs have become unmanageable. He wants to cut soaring electricity costs – with a new state-run green utility company. He wants to cut wait times for medical and dental appointments.
Britain’s foreign policy hardly ever changes under a new government. Tony Travers, a politics expert at the London School of Economics, said foreign policy would remain amazingly unaltered by a shift from Conservative to Labour rule. Starmer has said Britain will remain a strong member of NATO, will back Ukraine in its war against Russia, and will support Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas while calling for a cease-fire. Although Brexit is seen as a flop, and there is no enthusiasm for another referendum, Britain under Starmer will probably seek a closer relationship with the European Union.
YouGov predicted in its final poll, conducted between June 19 and July 2, that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party will win 431 seats, Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives 102 seats and Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats 72 seats. Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK party is predicted to win three seats.
If these numbers are accurate, the election would give Labour its largest majority in modern history – bigger even than Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide victory.
While all the polls suggest Labour is set to trounce the Conservatives, there is variation in the polls. Different pollsters use different methodologies and a sizable number of people tell pollsters they don’t know how they will vote.
This could be a historically big win for Labour. The final poll from YouGov, which was conducted between June 19 and July 2, projected Labour will win 431 seats, the Conservatives 102 and the Liberal Democrats 72. Tony Blair’s party won 418 seats in what was considered a landslide in 1997.
Conservatives have tried to rev up their voters by warning of a Labour supermajority, but that isn’t a term that has real meaning in Britain’s parliamentary system. Legislation passes as long as just over 50% of lawmakers vote for it. And as long as Labour wins a simple majority of seats, it can form a government and expect to pass much of its program. Governing parties seek to maintain strict discipline in the House of Commons by sending written instructions to lawmakers indicating how they should vote. On important bills, rebel lawmakers can be kicked out of the party as punishment or lose the whip.
On Wednesday, the last day of campaigning, reporters asked Prime Minister Rishi Sunak if he would take full responsibility for the election result. He replied, Yes.
Sunak pushed back against the claim by one of his cabinet ministers that things were hopeless for the Conservative Party. Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride had told Sky News that Labour was heading toward the largest majority this country has ever seen. Sunak asked voters to separate the frustrations which they understandably have about me, the party and the past from what a Labour government would mean for their families specifically.
The big moment to watch is the 10 p.m. exit poll (5 p.m. Eastern time), which should strongly indicate where things will end up. The exit poll is based on a model developed by John Curtice, Britain’s election polling guru, and a team of others, who gather data from 130 carefully selected polling stations nationwide. In 2019, the model predicted that Boris Johnson’s Conservatives would win an 86-seat majority – they ended up winning an 80-seat majority.
After the exit poll is out, hardcore politicos will start caffeinating. Results from individual constituencies will trickle in overnight, with a flurry of results landing between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. local time (10 p.m. and midnight Eastern). We’ll find out whether the far-right, anti-immigrant Farage will finally, after seven failed attempts, become a member of Parliament. Sunak, who is facing challenges from candidates including the satirical Count Boniface,will hear if he has retained his seat.
The final results are declared Friday morning, possibly around 7 a.m. local time (2 a.m. Eastern).
