Guatemala’s Reform-Minded Arevalo Triumphs in Presidential Runoff, Faces Bitter Post-Election Battle

Guatemala’s Bernardo Arevalo emerged victorious in the country’s presidential runoff, securing a landslide victory with 58% of the vote. Arevalo, the son of an ex-president, is seen as a symbol of hope for democracy in Guatemala, a nation haunted by its dictatorial past. He garnered widespread support due to his anti-corruption message, which resonated with voters. However, even as Arevalo celebrates his unexpected triumph, a bitter post-election battle looms. Prosecutors are determined to challenge his center-left Semilla party, accusing it of falsifying signatures during its formation in 2017. Despite their efforts to cancel the party’s legal standing, Guatemala’s top court has thus far rejected these attempts. Prominent prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche warned last week that raids and arrest warrants could be implemented against the Semilla party. Curruchiche himself has been accused of corruption by the U.S. government. However, U.S. support could prove crucial to ensuring a smooth transition of power for Arevalo on January 14. Sources reveal that fresh U.S. financial sanctions are being considered against Guatemalan officials who try to impede Arevalo’s win. Furthermore, the U.S. may suspend sugar exports if sustained efforts are made to prevent Arevalo from assuming office. As Guatemala is a significant sugar exporter, such a suspension would have far-reaching economic implications. The election took place against a backdrop of right-wing backlash to a previous anti-corruption drive, with critics claiming it violated Guatemala’s sovereignty. Ricardo Mendez Ruiz, an influential conservative, warns that the imminent government will have a socialist inclination. He asserts that the country’s history indicates an inevitable equal and opposing reaction from conservative forces. Former graft-busting attorney general Thelma Aldana is optimistic that Arevalo’s victory can reignite the fight against corruption. Aldana praises the international collaboration that enabled the prosecution of numerous corruption cases, including the downfall of a sitting president in 2015. However, the anti-graft commission, known as CICIG, was dissolved in 2019 by a president implicated in illicit campaign financing. Corruption remains deeply rooted in Guatemala, but Aldana believes that the people are aware of their rights and deserve better. Francisco Goldman, a Guatemalan-American writer, echoes this sentiment, acknowledging that unraveling entrenched corruption will take time but highlighting the country’s active and engaged citizens. As the transition of power unfolds in the coming months, opponents of Arevalo are expected to continue their fight, driven by self-interest and the desire to protect their positions. Nevertheless, Guatemala remains steadfast in its pursuit of a better future, free from corruption.