Growing Concerns Over China’s Increasing Likelihood of Military Action on Taiwan
There is mounting global concern over the growing possibility of China resorting to military force to reunify Taiwan. Experts believe that the Chinese government might deploy military action as a means to divert its population’s attention from domestic troubles, particularly after China’s economic growth witnessed a significant decline in 2022.
Recent events and signals from Beijing have heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait and raised alarms internationally. During the 2022 Communist Party congress, President Xi emphasized that Taiwan is at the heart of China’s rejuvenation and while peaceful reunification is preferred, China does not renounce the use of force.
The situation escalated further following the visit of former US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August 2022. China responded by conducting military exercises in the strait and severing military dialogues and cooperation channels with the US. Subsequently, in late December 2022, China carried out additional military strike drills near Taiwan, with Chinese aircraft breaching Taiwan’s air defense zone.
These heightened geopolitical tensions have the potential to exert socio-economic and political pressures on Taiwan, with wider consequences for the self-governing island. Observers suggest that if China chooses to use force against Taiwan, it is likely to ramp up the production of munitions, ballistic and cruise missiles, and other military hardware. China may also take steps to protect relevant industries from disruptions and sanctions, such as freezing foreign financial assets within China and suspending key exports like critical minerals.
Furthermore, the current state of affairs in the region is expected to heavily influence Taiwan’s politics, particularly the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. The issue of independence versus unification with China plays a central role in Taiwanese politics. As support for Taiwan’s president wanes, the rhetoric about independence from China intensifies.
These dynamics could lead to political polarization between pro-independence and pro-Beijing groups, aligning along the lines of political parties. The older population, which tends to be more supportive of unification, could be drawn towards the pro-unification nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) party. Conversely, the younger population leans towards pro-independence views, which has historically resulted in hostile political attitudes toward China.
It is important to note that identifying as Taiwanese does not necessarily equate to support for independence. The majority of Taiwan’s population prefers the status quo, despite a gradual increase in those identifying as Taiwanese. However, national identity and China-Taiwan relations have previously caused divisions within society.
The current tensions between Beijing and Taipei have already begun to impact the Taiwanese economy. Taiwan’s increasing military pressures prompted the extension of compulsory military service from four months to one year, affecting young people’s entry into the workforce and limiting their labor market opportunities.
These factors collectively exert additional pressure on Taiwan’s economy, granting China more power in the region. As the situation continues to unfold, it remains crucial to closely monitor developments and assess their potential implications for Taiwan’s stability and global relations.
In conclusion, the growing likelihood of China’s military action on Taiwan has sparked global concerns. The escalating tensions, combined with political and economic implications, necessitate a careful examination of the situation. Maintaining peace and stability in the region will require diplomatic efforts and a consideration of the complex dynamics at play.
