American allies worry the US is growing less dependable, whether Trump or Biden wins
LONDON – America’s allies are expressing concerns about the reliability of the United States, regardless of whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden wins the upcoming presidential election. The divided electorate and gridlock in Congress are raising fears that the next American president will face numerous challenges domestically, which could hamper the country’s ability to address global flashpoints.
French President Emmanuel Macron recently stated that America’s first priority is itself, reflecting the worries of many allied nations. During his first term, President Trump strained relationships with European allies, publicly criticizing leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former British Prime Minister Theresa May, while expressing admiration for leaders like Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s skepticism of organizations like NATO and his questioning of the US’s financial contributions to the alliance have also raised concerns among allies who rely on NATO’s support, particularly Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s aggression.
On the other hand, Joe Biden has made his support for Ukraine a key priority and a moral imperative. However, some doubts remain about whether his election will truly restore America’s global standing. Congressional Republicans have stalled military aid to Ukraine, and America’s influence has been unable to curb conflicts in the Middle East.
Thomas Gift, the director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London, believes that regardless of the election outcome, the United States is moving toward a multipolar world where it is no longer the dominant superpower.
While most allied leaders refrain from commenting directly on the US election, they are quietly working behind the scenes to establish connections with both candidates’ political teams. However, NATO allies in Europe are increasingly concerned about the reliability of the US. Some are even discussing the need to increase military spending and prepare for a future without full reliance on the United States.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for example, has been urging fellow leaders to provide more support to Ukraine. Germany is the second-largest provider of military aid to Kyiv, but Scholz acknowledges that his country alone cannot fill the gap if the US withdraws its support.
Russia, on the other hand, is actively strengthening alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea while attempting to undermine international support for Ukraine. Macron has also voiced concerns that the US’s attention is shifting away from Europe and redirecting towards China. He has advocated for a stronger Europe that can protect itself and reduce dependence on others.
Although Trump has supporters in Europe, particularly among pro-Russia populists like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, other leaders like British Prime Minister Boris Johnson argue that a Trump presidency could be beneficial for the world. Johnson, a strong supporter of Ukraine, believes that Trump would help Ukraine win its conflict with Russia and ultimately create a more stable world.
Bronwen Maddox, the director of international affairs think tank Chatham House, disagrees with Johnson’s assessment and argues that Trump has been destabilizing and would continue to be if reelected.
Regardless of the outcome of the US election, it is clear that the world is entering a more fractured era where the United States is no longer the indisputable superpower. Allied leaders and rivals alike are cautiously watching the race and preparing for the potential shifts in American foreign policy that could ensue.
—
Word count: 600
