Global Stroke Deaths Expected to Rise by 50% to 9.7 Million Annually by 2050
According to a new report by the World Stroke Organization-Lancet Neurology Commission, the number of global stroke deaths is projected to increase by 50% to 9.7 million per year by 2050 unless urgent action is taken. The report highlights the growing health and economic impacts of stroke, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
The analysis, which is based on evidence-based guidelines, recent surveys, and interviews with stroke experts worldwide, reveals that the number of people affected by stroke has nearly doubled in the past 30 years. The majority of those affected are in LMICs, where the prevalence of stroke is increasing at a faster rate than in high-income countries (HICs).
If current trends continue, it is unlikely that the World Health Organization’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of reducing premature deaths from non-communicable diseases, including stroke, by one-third by 2030 will be achieved. However, the report suggests that investing in stroke prevention and care could have significant financial benefits, with the costs outweighing the initial spending by ten-to-one.
Professor Valery L. Feigin, co-chair of the commission, emphasizes the toll that stroke takes on the global population, resulting in millions of deaths and permanent disabilities and costing billions of dollars. The report acknowledges that forecasting the future health and economic impact of stroke is challenging, but the estimates underscore the urgent need for effective action.
The report projects a sharp rise in stroke deaths in LMICs, widening the gap with HICs. By 2050, it is estimated that 91% of global stroke deaths will occur in LMICs, compared to 86% in 2020. Asia currently accounts for the largest share of stroke deaths globally, and this share is predicted to increase from 61% in 2020 to 69% by 2050. Sub-Saharan African countries are also expected to see a significant increase in stroke deaths.
Economically, the combined cost of stroke is projected to rise from $891 billion per year in 2017 to up to $2.31 trillion in 2050. The majority of these economic impacts will be felt in Asia and Africa.
To address the growing burden of stroke, the report offers evidence-based recommendations for stroke surveillance, prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation. These include improving stroke awareness, enhancing surveillance data on stroke risk factors, implementing legislative regulations and taxation of unhealthy products, and strengthening stroke organizations and networks.
Professor Mayowa O. Owolabi, co-chair of the commission, emphasizes that investing in evidence-based measures to reduce the global burden of stroke would deliver benefits beyond health, including poverty reduction and economic growth.
The World Stroke Organization is committed to supporting the implementation of these recommendations globally through various initiatives, including educational programs, collaboration with policy-makers, and the establishment of stroke prevention and care plans.
In conclusion, urgent action is needed to address the projected increase in global stroke deaths. By implementing evidence-based measures outlined in the report, it is possible to reduce the burden of stroke significantly and achieve the goals set by the World Health Organization. The report highlights the importance of prioritizing stroke prevention and care to improve the well-being of millions of people worldwide.
