New Report Highlights Growing Global Ecological Threats: Conflict, Displacement, and Food Insecurity on the Rise
LONDON, Nov. 1, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) has released its annual Ecological Threat Report, revealing alarming findings regarding ecological degradation and its consequences. The report assesses ecological threats worldwide, identifying countries and regions most at risk of conflict, civil unrest, and displacement due to environmental deterioration and climate-related events. Covering 221 countries and over 3,500 subnational areas, the report emphasizes the urgent need for collective action to prevent further escalation of these risks.
The key finding of the Ecological Threat Report is that if immediate action is not taken, current levels of ecological degradation will intensify. This escalation will further exacerbate existing conflicts and instigate new ones, leading to a significant increase in forced migration. The report highlights that the number of countries facing severe ecological threats and having low societal resilience has risen from 27 to 30 in the past year alone. These hotspot countries are home to a staggering 1.1 billion people, indicating an increase of 332 million individuals facing ecological challenges. The recent surge in global food prices has put additional strain on countries already grappling with food insecurity.
The relationship between ecological degradation and conflict is cyclical, with resource depletion leading to conflict, while conflict accelerates resource degradation. Regions like the Sahel, characterized by governance deficiencies, weak rule of law, high poverty levels, and short-term climate variations, are most impacted by ecological degradation triggering conflicts.
The repercussions of conflicts often spill over into neighboring countries, affecting entire regions and beyond. Currently, there are over 108 million people displaced worldwide, marking a 24% increase since 2020. Of these displacements, approximately 30% extend beyond 500 kilometers from their home countries, with a significant number of illegal entries into Europe originating from ecologically threatened and conflict-ridden countries. Notably, hotspot countries account for 29% of illegal entries from Syria and 9% from Afghanistan into Europe.
According to IEP estimates based on current trends, it is projected that by 2050, 2.8 billion people will inhabit countries facing severe ecological threats, compared to 1.8 billion in 2023.
The report also highlights the link between food insecurity and water stress, revealing that a 25% increase in food insecurity heightens the risk of conflict by 36%. Similarly, a 25% rise in water stress escalates the likelihood of conflict by 18%. Areas with a history of conflict and weak institutions are particularly vulnerable to these interconnected challenges.
Global food prices have surged by 33% since 2016, further straining the most vulnerable populations. Currently, 42 countries are grappling with severe food insecurity, affecting nearly four billion individuals. Most of these nations are located in sub-Saharan Africa.
The report also underscores the concerning state of access to safe drinking water, with two billion people living in countries without this essential resource. By 2040, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will mirror sub-Saharan Africa’s water stress. Furthermore, eight out of 12 countries in Russia and Eurasia currently face significant water challenges due to low rainfall and geographical factors.
These trends are expected to worsen, with global warming projected to surpass the 1.5°C threshold, making it increasingly difficult to limit temperature rise to below 2°C. This, in turn, will exacerbate ecological degradation and the underlying drivers of conflict.
The Ecological Threat Report also sheds light on the correlation between climate change, natural disasters, population growth, and conflict. Climate change amplifies the risks posed by droughts, floods, cyclones, and storms. Remarkably, death rates are seven times higher in countries with lower levels of resilience and peace compared to those with higher levels.
The increasing demographic pressures further intensify ecological risks, placing additional strain on public resources and societal resilience, particularly in already vulnerable regions. By 2050, sub-Saharan Africa’s population is projected to reach 2.2 billion, a substantial increase of over 60%. This population surge will significantly increase the pressure on existing food and water supplies, with the number of youths under 15 expected to surpass the entire population of Europe.
To effectively combat these challenges, countries heavily reliant on fossil fuels will require assistance during the green transition. For nations like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Libya, Iraq, Angola, and Timor Leste, which derive over 25% of their GDP from fossil fuels, the decline in GDP could be as severe as 60% between 2030 and 2040. These countries, already confronting major ecological challenges and displaying low societal resilience, face an arduous road ahead during the transition to a greener economy.
Steve Killelea, the Founder & Executive Chairman of IEP, emphasized the need for investment in programs that enhance societal resilience and drive economic advancement. As world leaders approach COP 28, the Ecological Threat Report serves as a timely reminder of the imperative to act and build resilience for the future. Countries with high levels of Positive Peace, characterized by attitudes, institutions, and structures conducive to peaceful societies, are better equipped to address these complex challenges in a world grappling with ecological degradation, conflict, and forced migration.
The Ecological Threat Report is unique in its multi-faceted, machine learning approach, integrating measures of resilience with comprehensive ecological data. By identifying countries least likely to cope with extreme ecological shocks, this report aims to guide policymakers towards comprehensive and timely action.
The findings of the report underscore the urgent need for effective international cooperation in addressing global ecological threats. Failure to act swiftly and invest in building resilience may have dire consequences for millions of people worldwide.
