Australia’s east coast gas market is forecast to have a surplus of between 69 and 110 petajoules in 2025 if Queensland’s LNG producers export all of their uncontracted gas, the ACCC’s latest gas inquiry report shows.
While there is forecast to be an overall surplus next year, there is a risk of a shortfall in the third quarter when demand for energy is typically higher due to demand for heating in winter. The risk has reduced with the extended operation of Eraring Power Station, but if a shortfall does occur, LNG producers will need to commit a small amount of additional gas to the domestic market to ensure there is sufficient supply.
Gas will also need to be sent from Queensland to southern jurisdictions to avoid local shortfalls in both the second and third quarters of 2025.
The report covers the first four months of the Gas Market Code’s full operation, and this was a period of relatively quiet market activity.
Given this, there is not sufficient data in this report to draw conclusions about the impact of the Code on prices. Further, the ACCC expects that most gas produced in 2024-25 will not be subject to the Code’s price rules. Some additional supply secured under conditional Ministerial exemptions from the Code may help ease pressures in 2024 and 2025, but much of the potential additional gas identified via conditional Ministerial exemptions will not become available until at least 2026.
The latest report’s forecast remains on track with previous forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2024. A small surplus of 7 petajoules is forecast if Queensland’s LNG producers export all their current uncontracted gas, or 19 petajoules if they only export their currently anticipated spot sales.
The report found that east coast gas market prices have continued to decline from their highs in mid-2022 and are now closer to levels last seen in early 2022. This decline can be seen in both producer and retail prices.
The prices offered by producers for 2024 supply fell by two per cent between August and December 2023 to $14.32 per gigajoule. The prices offered by retailers for 2024 supply also fell over this period, by 16 per cent to $16.51 per gigajoule.
Forecasts indicate that the east coast gas market may experience gas supply shortfalls as early as 2027 unless new sources of supply are made available. This predicted shortfall is likely to take place one year earlier than what previous reports have forecast, with the extended operation of Eraring Power Station improving the outlook for 2027 but not altering the fundamental trajectory of supply.
With long term export contracts for LNG producers due to expire from the mid-2030s, this presents a critical opportunity for policy considerations that promote efficient and more secure domestic gas supply as well as the export of gas, Ms Brakey said.
In 2017, the Australian Government directed the ACCC to conduct a wide-ranging inquiry into the supply of and demand for natural gas in Australia, and to publish regular information on the supply and pricing of gas. The ACCC will conduct the inquiry until 2030 after the Government extended it in 2019 and again in 2022.
On 11 September 2023, the Gas Market Code came into full effect after a two-month transition period. The Gas Market Code aims to achieve its objectives through a combination of pricing requirements, greater transparency on available gas to the market, and the establishment of a more level playing field between buyers and sellers when negotiating wholesale gas supply agreements.
The ACCC’s June 2024 interim report findings reflect a point-in-time assessment based on information collected directly from gas producers and retailers, and the Australian Energy Market Operator. Market and policy developments may affect the actual outcomes experienced on the east coast.
The ACCC’s next report on the gas inquiry’s supply-demand outlook will be published in September 2024, and the next full interim report is scheduled for December 2024.
