While the number of COVID-19 cases in Karnataka has seen a significant rise in the last ten days, experts believe that the state is unlikely to experience another wave of the virus. Rajath Athreya, a member of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), mentioned that based on the global trajectory, the probability of another wave occurring is low. However, he emphasized the need to monitor the situation closely over the next few weeks to determine the intensity of the surge.
Dr. Athreya, who is also a Senior Consultant and Head of the Department of Paediatrics and Neonatology at Sakra World, explained that the current surge cannot be classified as a wave unless there is a sharp increase in hospitalizations and deaths that overwhelm the healthcare system. He further stated that with the increase in COVID-19 testing, a rise in the number of cases is expected.
This is because, in the past few months, we were not testing SARI and ILI cases. The testing strategy, as of now, is to test only symptomatic SARI/ILI patients. Also, we are not doing contact screening or quarantine-based testing for those with a travel history. Once we start doing all these, there is a high likelihood that the test positivity rate (TPR) will shoot up, Dr. Athreya explained.
Dr. Athreya also mentioned that initially, the surge is anticipated to be seen in Bengaluru, followed by semi-urban areas, and then possibly in other districts.
Virologist V. Ravi, a former TAC member and nodal officer for genomic confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 in Karnataka, advised people not to panic but to remain cautious. He indicated that we are now in a phase of endemicity, where individuals have varying levels of immunity to the virus due to previous infections, exposures, and vaccination. Dr. Ravi highlighted the JN.1 variant, which has immune escape properties due to mutations, making it highly infectious. He warned that the mutation enables faster spread, and even brief exposure can lead to infection. Dr. Ravi stressed the importance of the elderly, immunocompromised individuals, and those with underlying health conditions following precautionary measures.
As the situation continues to evolve, it is crucial for the public to stay informed and exercise caution. Adhering to safety protocols and getting vaccinated are key measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19.
