China’s Lifting of Covid Restrictions Linked to 1.87 Million Excess Deaths
A new study conducted by researchers at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle has found a staggering link between China’s lifting of Covid restrictions and a significant increase in excess deaths. According to the study, an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths occurred among individuals aged 30 and older from December 2022 to January, predominantly affecting the older population.
China’s strict zero-Covid policies, which included mass testing, border closures, and extended citywide lockdowns, effectively kept Covid cases and deaths to a minimum for a large portion of the pandemic. However, when the government abruptly lifted these restrictions after rare mass protests across the country, the virus spread rapidly among the 1.4 billion people who had little exposure to it.
The resulting wave of cases, driven by the highly transmissible omicron variant, overwhelmed hospitals and led to a significant increase in deaths. Experts argue that the official data provided by Chinese authorities vastly underreported the true number of Covid-related deaths. Anecdotal evidence, alongside satellite imagery depicting increased activity at crematoriums and funeral homes, supports these claims.
The figure of 1.87 million excess deaths is far higher than the official Chinese data, which reported approximately 60,000 Covid-related deaths in health facilities between early December 2022 and January 12. It also aligns with estimates from other researchers, including a study by Zhanwei Du from the University of Hong Kong and Lauren Ancel Meyers from the University of Texas at Austin, which suggested that Covid may have claimed over 1.4 million lives in China from December 16, 2022, to January 19.
To arrive at their estimate, the researchers in this latest study analyzed obituaries published by three Chinese universities for both current and retired employees. They also examined search data from Baidu, a popular Chinese internet search engine, using terms like cremation and burial. The researchers emphasized the significance of their findings in understanding how a sudden surge in Covid-19 cases can impact population mortality.
Although some experts argue that the study’s estimation methodology may lack scientific rigor, it nevertheless provides an objective and valuable attempt to assess the real impact of the recent surge in cases. Jin Dong-yan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, believes the study’s data is closely aligned with the available research. However, Jin notes that the actual numbers could be slightly higher or lower than the estimates presented.
Jin also highlights a potential offsetting factor in the study’s benchmarks. The university employees analyzed, most of whom are city dwellers and intellectuals, may possess a higher level of self-preparatory awareness, vaccination rates, and access to healthcare resources. However, they might also be more susceptible to underlying health conditions compared to the general population.
Moving forward, Jin advocates for transparency and honesty from the Chinese government. He suggests that they emulate previous years, such as 2018 and 2019, by disclosing all relevant data. This approach would provide a clearer and more accurate understanding of the impact of Covid-19 on the population.
The link between China’s abrupt lifting of Covid restrictions and the subsequent surge in excess deaths raises concerns about the potential consequences of hasty policy changes. It serves as a stark reminder that carefully phased and evidence-based approaches are crucial in managing the ongoing pandemic. The findings of this study underscore the need for governments worldwide to implement effective measures to protect their populations and mitigate the devastating impact of Covid-19.
Overall, the study’s estimate of 1.87 million excess deaths resulting from the lifting of China’s zero-Covid policy provides valuable insights into the impact of the recent surge in cases. By acknowledging the limitations and potential implications of their methodology, researchers aim to contribute to the global understanding of how population mortality can be affected by sudden propagation of the virus.
