Cambodia’s Longest-Serving Leader’s Son Steps Up as Prime Minister
Just three days after winning a landslide victory in Cambodia’s elections, Prime Minister Hun Sen announced his resignation from the post. His replacement? His oldest son, Hun Manet. On August 7, Cambodia’s king appointed the 45-year-old as the country’s new prime minister. This transition marks a significant shift in leadership for Cambodia, as Hun Sen has been the country’s prime minister for nearly four decades, making him one of the world’s longest-serving leaders.
Hun Manet, although previously touted as his father’s successor in 2021, had not specified exactly when he would assume office. Consequently, there was much speculation about the changes that the western-educated leader might bring to the country, particularly given Cambodia’s close ties with China.
Known for maintaining a low-profile, Hun Manet has focused on his social media activities. However, this year he also assisted with his father’s campaign duties, indicating his increasing involvement in politics. Previously the commander of the Royal Cambodian Army, Hun Manet has an impressive background. He is the first Cambodian to graduate from the West Point military academy, earning his degree in 1999. He went on to obtain a master’s degree in economics from New York University and a doctorate from Bristol University in the United Kingdom.
In terms of his governance style, political analysts believe that while Hun Manet’s rule may differ from his father’s, he will still adhere to the official party line. This is because his decisions and actions are expected to be approved by his father, who still holds significant influence within the party. Additionally, although Hun Manet’s new Cabinet may consist of younger leaders, these individuals are children of the old guard and are unlikely to significantly reset policies or change direction unless the older generation is no longer present.
Cambodia’s foreign policy, particularly its friendly stance towards China, is expected to remain unchanged under Hun Manet’s leadership. China has been a major contributor to Cambodia’s economic development, accounting for 44% of the country’s total foreign direct investment since 1994. Additionally, China and Cambodia share a strong historical relationship. However, Hun Manet’s western education might make him more open to engaging in bilateral trade with Western countries.
It is difficult to predict whether Hun Manet will place a strong emphasis on ASEAN unity. China’s continued partnership with Cambodia may impact his decisions, as the two countries have significant ties. Cambodia’s veto power within ASEAN, driven by its perception of national interests by the authorities, is also likely to persist.
Singapore, one of Cambodia’s key trading partners, is unlikely to be affected by the leadership transition. The bilateral relationship between the two countries is expected to continue due to their mutually beneficial trade ties. Singapore has been viewed positively by Cambodians as an investor and trading partner, and this sentiment is unlikely to change.
In summary, with Hun Manet assuming the role of prime minister, Cambodia is set to experience a significant leadership change. While his governance style may differ from his father’s, Hun Manet is still expected to adhere to the official party line. Cambodia’s close ties with China are expected to continue, given the country’s substantial investments and historical relationship. Nevertheless, Hun Manet’s western education may lead to increased engagement with Western countries. The impact of his leadership on ASEAN unity remains uncertain, as Cambodia’s national interests have a significant influence on decision-making. Singapore’s bilateral relationship with Cambodia is expected to remain strong, with trade ties continuing to thrive.
